Coming out of summer, Democrats look well placed to possibly take both chambers
As the midterms approach, I always give you a fresh look at what could happen in terms of control of Congress. Back on August 31 I did my last forecast. A great deal has changed. I told you that summer election polling is notoriously unreliable. There is a lack of engagement during the summer months by voters. Such polls also usually hit registered voters instead of likely voters. And, history would show that summer polls appear to be biased toward Democrats, consistently overestimating support for the party.
Polls begin to become more accurate post Labor Day as polling switches to likely voter concentration and voters become more engaged. The problem for Republicans, though, is that the latest polls appear to be saying the same thing they did prior to Labor Day. There is some evidence that GOP support has been undercounted nationally and in some statewide races for the past several election cycles. But the current status and trends can be seen as good news for President Donald Trump and the Republicans.
The GOP at a disadvantage
As I have said in past blogs on the midterms, the GOP has a huge uphill battle to keep control of both chambers.
I looked at every midterm election since 1934. No matter how popular a president might be, only on two occasions has the party in control of the White House gained seats in both houses at midterm elections. A third midterm sort of meets the test. In the 23 midterms I looked at, 12 presidents had popularity over 50% and just in 5 midterms did the president’s party gain seats in 1 or more houses.
In sum, the power of White House incumbency is not strong in midterm elections. Thus, the GOP would be bucking historical trends if it keeps control of both houses, especially given the very tight margins in each house.
The latest polls and forecasts
As usual, I combed numerous websites that track polls and predict election outcomes to come up with my views. Shout out to Real Clear Politics/Polling, The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and 270 to Win as really good sources for all things elections, polls, and predictions. As an aside, Real Clear Politics’ publishing arm published my book, The Healthcare Labyrinth (available at this site).
Hurting GOP prospects is the fact that President Trump’s latest approval rating average is very low. The Real Clear Politics latest average is roughly 38% approval for the president and 60% disapproval. Trump is now under water by 22%. This is up from 17% about a month ago. The Iran war and major inflation continue to erode Trump’s numbers.
Worse, the latest Real Clear Politics 2026 generic ballot shows the Democrats up about 7.9% with Democratic support over 50%. The generic ballot went up from 6.4% a month ago. This, too, is troubling for Democrats. Given the gerrymandering in the House (see below), only about 10 to 15% of seats are actually competitive. Various models said that Democrats need to maintain 5% to 6% favorability on the generic ballot to win control of the House. A small swing downward could push things the other way. But in a month, Democrats moved up by over 2 points, further solidifying prospects for control of the lower chamber and likely increasing their vote-count margin.
What about the markets? Polymarket has House control at 91% Democrat (it was 90% in my last report). Kalshi has it at 90% (it was 84% in my last report). Polymarket has Senate control at 64% Democrat (it was 51% Republican in my last report). Kalshi has Senate control at 62% Republican (it was 51% in my last report). I am a little more dubious about the Senate numbers than the House ones. See Senate section below.
The Senate status
When last I wrote, I thought it was more likely than not that the Senate is controlled by the GOP after the midterms, but said this truly has become a toss-up year for the upper chamber. A month later, I am less confident the GOP will maintain control. Democrats’ chances are increasing. The president’s negative polls, the war, and economy all are weighing down the GOP in swing states. But all is not lost in terms of hope for the GOP. The sheer math still makes it tough for Democrats to win back control.
Here are the Senate races in play out of 35 up for election (22 GOP and 13 Democrat). As well, I have a few others to watch.
Alaska (R): Toss Up – Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola (who won statewide) is clearly leading GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan (she is up by about 1.2%) and won the first jungle primary phase considerably – 49.5% to 41.4% — in mid-August. While Alaska is a GOP state, Peltola is a moderate and this one will come down to the wire given the quirkiness of the state. Peltola has won statewide as its at-large House member. Sullivan is hobbled by soaring energy prices.
Texas (R): Open Seat — Toss Up – The result of the GOP primary (state AG Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn) continues to be a disaster for Republicans. Current Sen. John Cornyn would likely have won the race considerably in the end, but the race is now a Toss Up due to Paxton’s controversies, unpopularity, and much more rightist views than Cornyn’s. Polling averages put Democrat James Tallarico up by about 3.1% now, an increase from 2% a year ago. That is worrisome for the GOP, but I continue to have a hard time believing Democrats can win in this reliably Red state and because polls in Texas tend to undercount GOP support. But it is not out of the question given the economy and Paxton’s controversies.
Maine (R): Toss Up — Popular leftist Democratic Graham Platner’s campaign blew up due to scandals. Democrats had to quickly replace him with Troy Jackson, a progressive former state Senate president. Jackson is now in a dead heat with long-term and moderate GOP Sen. Susan Collins (technically up 0.7%). A month ago, he was ahead by 2%. Collins polled well behind in her last election and won big. She usually outperforms polls and Jackson is not the charismatic character that Platner was.
Michigan (D): Open Seat — Toss Up to Leans Democrat — This should be very close with former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers coming back from a Senate try last cycle against a socialist Democratic primary victor, physician Abdul El-Sayed. President Trump’s approval is worse in Michigan than the national average. This will weigh down Rogers. But El-Sayed may be too radical for the tastes of this blue collar state. El-Sayed’s moderate primary opponent might have won handily in the general given the anti-Red sentiment right now. But right now, El-Sayed is polling about 3.2% ahead of Rogers. The economic downturn and tariffs are proving very controversial in Michigan. The pocketbook issues could very well ‘trump” distrust of El-Sayed’s leftist agenda in MI.
Ohio (R): Toss Up — Former Senator Sherrod Brown (deposed in 2024) is back to reclaim a seat from GOP incumbent Jon Husted. Brown now is up 3.5% compared with 2.5% a month ago. Trump is unpopular in Ohio, which means this will be a close race. I told you I have a hard time thinking this now reliably Red state will boot Husted, but Brown is making a compelling case for his return to office.
Iowa: (R): Open Seat – Toss Up — U.S. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is now down against state Democratic lawmaker Josh Turek. She was up about 1.5% a month ago. Turek is now up 0.7%. This farm state has been battered by tariffs and soaring input prices due to the war. I still feel the edge goes to the Republicans, but this race right now is headed in the wrong direction.
New Hampshire (D): Open Seat — Leans Democrat – U.S. Senator John Sununu won his primary and is running to reclaim his seat in an increasingly Democratic state. His brother, former Governor Chris Sununu would have been more formidable. Sununu is facing Democratic U.S. Rep Chris Pappas. Sununu was in a dead heat in some polls a month ago and seemed to be gaining momentum. But the polling averages have moved from 2% with Pappas on top to 5.9%. This one increasingly looks out of reach for the GOP.
North Carolina (R): Open Seat — Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat — Popular former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper looks strong against former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. What looked like a surge by the GOP a month ago is now a 9% lead for Cooper. He is likely going to win big.
Georgia (D): Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat –- Incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff has a huge war chest. He polls ahead of GOP U.S. Rep. Mike Collins by 7.8% now. This is getting to be close to a lock for Ossoff.
Kansas (R): Toss Up to Lean Republican — Incumbent GOP Sen. Roger Marshall is in a battle with Democrat Adam Hamilton. Marshall is up by just 0.2% right now in a farm state struggling with costs and tariffs. Still, most analysts put this in the Lean Republican slot.
Others to Watch:
Minnesota (D): -– Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat — Democrat Peggy Flanagan is topping Republican Michelle Tafoja by about 1.6%. Strange in a heavily Democrat state. But Flanagan should win rather comfortably.
Nebraska (R): – Leans Republican to Likely Republican — Incumbent GOP Sen. Pete Ricket’s is ahead by 3.3% over a very-appealing independent Dan Osborn.
Montana (R): Open Seat – Likely Republican to Safe Republican — Three-way races are always interesting. The GOP candidiate is up 14%.
South Carolina (R): Open Seat (sort of) – Likely Republican to Safe Republican — The race is tightening with the Republican, the sister of late Sen. Lyndsey Graham, 2.4% ahead.
Senate races are less tied to prevailing national sentiment, although it can count as we saw in 2024. With Trump’s unpopularity, it is hard to predict pickups of vulnerable Democratic seats. NH looks more and more unlikely. MI remains possible given the progressive nature of the Democrat.
The status of the economy, however, makes Democratic pickups more likely. NC will go Democrat due to Cooper’s popularity. GA will stay Democratic. I still think it is tough for Democrats to win strong GOP states such as TX, IA and OH, but the economy is weighing down the GOP’s prospects. I think Collins can pull through in Maine.
The Senate is 53-47 right now. The Democrats need to win 4 seats to win back control. 50-50 goes to the Republicans as the White House is Republican. I said it was unlikely that the GOP loses 4 of the now 7 competitive Republican-held seats. With NC very likely Democrat now, they need three more, assuming no flips by the GOP of Democratic seats. Last month, I said there was a 60% to 67% chance the GOP maintains control of the Senate. I am now down to about 50-50. I still do not buy the predictive markets’ up to 66% for Democrats. My likely outcome last month was a 51 or 52 seat majority for the GOP. Today, my predicted outcome is down to 50 or 51 seats for the GOP. The GOP will flip no seats. The Dems will flip NC and I think one other – likely AK. The Dems could flip one more, but I currently do not see two more in the cards. But if things continue to erode for the GOP, I could be predicting a Senate Democratic takeover in the next posting a month from now.
The House status
I continue to believe the Democrats will very likely win back the House. It is only a question of how sizeable their majority will be.
Gerrymandering over the years has meant most House seats are not at all competitive. Since last month, the number of certain GOP seats has gone down, from between 194 and 202 seats to between 174 and 195. Democrats have gone from between 187 and 196 to between 196 to 204. At the high end for both parties, the GOP has dropped 7 and Democrats have gained 8.
That leaves between 42 to 57 that are competitive this year, up from 37 to 54 seats truly competitive last month. These are known as Lean Republican, Lean Democrat, or Toss Up. But in these districts, public sentiment and candidate quality will hold great sway and many of these seats are now open due to a record number of retirements.
I have gone from thinking Democrats might have as little as a few-seats for majority control at the low end to a prediction now that the Democrats will have a healthier majority at the low end. My low estimate now is that Democrats win control and have at least 227 seats. My high estimate is that Democrats could have 237 seats. I think the GOP has little to no chance now of maintaining control of the House.
#elections2026 #trump #congress
— Marc S. Ryan
