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My Latest Midterm Election Forecast

Coming out of summer, Democrats look well placed to possibly take both chambers As the midterms approach, I always give you a fresh look at what could happen in terms of control of Congress. Back on August 31 I did my last forecast. A great deal has changed. I told you that summer election polling is notoriously unreliable. There is a lack of engagement during the summer months by voters. Such polls also usually hit registered voters instead of likely voters. And, history would show that summer polls appear to be biased toward Democrats, consistently overestimating support for the party. Polls begin to become more accurate post Labor Day as polling switches to likely voter concentration and voters become more engaged. The problem for Republicans, though, is that the latest polls appear to be saying the same thing they did prior to Labor Day. There is some evidence that GOP

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October 7, 2026

Hospitals Penalized For Readmissions The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announced that 2,334 hospitals, about 80% of those evaluated, are being penalized under the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program in fiscal 2027. CMS said 244 hospitals, or 8.4%, received penalties of 1% or more. Ten hospitals will face the maximum 3% penalty, with 34 facing penalties of 2% or more. Most hospitals — 71.8% — will see penalties below 1%. The share of hospitals receiving no penalty will drop to 19.8% (578 hospitals) from 21.8% (641) in 2026. The Fiscal 2027 round of penalties used both Medicare Advantage and fee-for-service data, but penalties continue to apply only to traditional Medicare payments. The performance period included discharges from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2025. #hospitals #quality #readmissions https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/cms-penalizes-2334-hospitals-for-high-readmissions-6-things-to-know/ Health Plan Enrollment Declines Health insurers’ membership declined 2.8% year-over-year to about 312.5 million people in 1H 2026. Losses in the

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October 6, 2026

Insurers Backing Away From Medicaid Given the looming budget cuts to hit Medicaid over the next decade, there are signs that some health plans are backing out of certain Medicaid managed care contracts. Insurers such as Centene and Elevance Health have walked away from Medicaid managed care contracts as costs rise. This has led to other plans picking up the slack in affected states. Providers complain that successors may not have enough providers in their network. Plans have said there are some good signs coming from certain states who are increasing rates to deal with financial problems in managed care. Louisiana increased rates. It appears that Arkansas and D.C. may have done so as well. #medicaid #managedcare #obbba https://www.modernhealthcare.com/insurance/mh-centene-elevance-medicaid-states-providers/ Optum and Express Scripts Grow Pharmacy benefits managers (PBMs) Optum Rx and Express Scripts each hold 23% of the PBM market, up from 21% and 17%, respectively. CVS Caremark fell from

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October 5, 2026

Stricter Price Transparency The Trump administration finalized its proposed rule that would make the data files mandated under price transparency regulations more usable. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said the regulation will improve the standardization, accuracy, and accessibility of the data plans and hospitals submit. It also would hold healthcare entities accountable for submitting incomplete or inaccurate data. In addition, Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chairman Andrew Ferguson said his agency will crack down on hospitals that are not providing complete and accurate price data, whether or not they are compliant with CMS’ transparency requirements. The FTC noticed 24 large hospitals and health systems for potential violations of consumer protection laws. In part, the regulation removes the submission of junk data tied to  infrequently applied rates or ghost networks. The administration did not finalize certain proposals that would have made price disclosures even more robust. Additional articles: https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/regulatory/cms-finalizes-updates-price-transparency-regulations-aim-improve-usability and

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Part 2: Medicare Advantage Retrenchment Isn’t Over, and the 2027 CMS Files Prove It

The CMS headline is stability. The details say another tough year for members and plans. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) wants you to see Medicare Advantage (MA) in 2027 as a story of lower premiums and steady choice. In its Sept. 28 release, CMS projected that the weighted average monthly MA premium would fall from $14.37 to $12, a 16.5% drop, and that the average Part D premium inside MA drug plans would fall 38%, from $11.32 to $7. The industry tells a different story. Once you open the landscape and crosswalk files, I think the industry has it right. Stability on top, churn underneath The total number of MA plans barely moves, from 5,553 in 2026 to 5,532 in 2027. But that net number hides a lot of adds and cuts. The average beneficiary will have 28 MA-PD options, down from 32. MA-PD products will fall

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October 2, 2026

PDP Premium Increases And Hidden Hurt Healthcare policy group KFF examined the standalone Part D (PDP) market. Of course, the Trump administration says the end of the suspect premium stabilization program will not mean major impacts to beneficiaries, but hidden hurt can be seen in the details. KFF finds that PDP availability and premiums for 2027 show a mixed picture. There are modest premium increases for many Part D enrollees for their current plan, but steeper increases are in store for others. There also is a reduction in the number of PDP options for the fourth year in a row. KFF’s key takeaways include: In related news, Devoted Health has garnered major financing for expansions of their Medicare advantage business. Additional article: https://www.beckerspayer.com/payer/medicare-advantage/devoted-health-closes-1-2b-financing-deal-amid-expansion-push/ #partd #pdp #kff #medicare https://www.kff.org/medicare/many-medicare-part-d-stand-alone-drug-plan-enrollees-will-see-modest-premium-increases-for-2027-but-others-could-pay-much-more-if-they-dont-switch-plans/ 340B Pilot Proceeds After an initial failure and a second published rule, the Health Resources and Services Administration is ready to launch

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October 1, 2026

More MA Retrenchment News Articles and analyses continue on the recent release of the landscape files and now with the go live of 2027 benefits on the Medicare Plan Finder. These new assessments continue to speak to the commotion under the seeming stability. Of large plans, only one, Molina, is fully exiting Medicare Advantage (MA) mainstream coverage. It will continue to offer Special Needs Plans (SNPs). Second-place Humana has the largest county footprint (2,694) followed by leader UnitedHealthcare (2,655). But all of the major plans are paring considerably in certain counties, while growing in others. For the most part, most big plans have modestly smaller overall offerings, with Centene being an outlier. Analyses now seem to say that the largest number of people ever will face terminations of their existing plans. Numbers vary, but the impact loosk to be 3 million or more. MA plans argue they are preserving core

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Following Up On My Priced Out Blog: Employers Plead For Relief

Smaller businesses could drop traditional coverage My September 7 blog on being priced out of healthcare ( https://www.healthcarelabyrinth.com/we-are-being-priced-out-of-healthcare-and-it-is-not-just-an-exchange-problem/ ) made the case that the affordability crisis went far beyond the Exchange subsidy debate. The bigger crisis we have is with employer coverage, where most Americans get their insurance. We also have a growing underinsured crisis as huge annual spending trends hit employers. Employers can only absorb so much. Eventually, the math catches up with everyone. Two recent developments make me even more concerned that we are approaching a genuine crisis. The first involves something most Americans have probably never heard of: the No Surprises Act’s federal arbitration process. The second is much easier to understand. Small and midsize employers are increasingly saying they may simply stop offering traditional health insurance. Those two developments may seem unrelated. They aren’t. They are two different manifestations of the same problem: Healthcare costs are

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September 30, 2026

GLOBE Model Finalized The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) finalized GLOBE, a mandatory five-year model linking Medicare Part B drug prices to cost benchmarks in 19 developed countries. The program starts in January and lasts for five years. The model targets drugs in oncology, rheumatology, immunology, ophthalmology and endocrinology. The parallel Part D program is not yet finalized. The models build on various initiatives undertaken by the Trump administration. Two problems here: GLOBE will reduce fee-for-service costs and effectively reduce Medicare Advantage payments without giving plans any lower costs. This could further reduce benefits in the program over time. As well, the final rule exempts from the model drug manufacturers in the parallel GENEROUS model for Medicaid. Drug makers struck price deals in Medicaid with the president. While I support Trump’s overall efforts, I think that is a mistake. Additional articles: https://www.modernhealthcare.com/politics-regulation/mh-cms-globe-medicare-part-b-drug-model/ and https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/pharmacy/cms-finalizes-new-drug-pricing-model-7-notes/ #drugpricing #partb #partd #medicare

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September 29, 2026

More On MA Retrenchment More details on the Medicare Advantage (MA) landscape files and the depth of retrenchment for 2027. In total, the number of MA plans to be offered will only drop from 5,553 in 2026 to 5,532 in 2027. But that hides the impacts of adds and cuts. The number of impacted enrollees looks much bigger than anticipated. A Modern Healthcare analysis finds that the number of individual MA with Part D prescription drug coverage (MA-PD) products will decline 8% in 2027. Further, it says that there will be 181 counties with no plans next year, up from 67 this year. And at least 3.8 million people will be forced to select new coverage after their insurers terminate a plan. Various analyses peg 2026 impacts at between 2.9 million and 4.6 million. I think the 2027 impact will be closer to 3M — still a shock for me.

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