The House still looks very likely to flip to Democratic control, with the Senate still in limbo
As the midterms approach, I always give you a fresh look at what could happen in terms of control of Congress. Back on June 8 I did my last forecast. I likely will do this again in late September and more frequently after that. As I have said, healthcare will be a big part of how votes are cast in November. Affordability overall is a top issue this election year and healthcare affordability dominates this issue in many ways.
The GOP at a disadvantage
As I have said in past blogs on the midterms, the GOP has a huge uphill battle to keep control of both chambers.
I looked at every midterm election since 1934. No matter how popular a president might be, only on two occasions has the party in control of the White House gained seats in both houses at midterm elections. A third midterm sort of meets the test. In the 23 midterms I looked at, 12 presidents had popularity over 50% and just in 5 midterms did the president’s party gain seats in 1 or more houses.
In sum, the power of White House incumbency is not strong in midterm elections. Thus, the GOP would be bucking historical trends if it keeps control of both houses, especially given the very tight margins in each house.
A word of caution on current polls
While I cite polls below, it is important to put summer polling in context. Summer polls are notoriously unreliable. There is a lack of engagement during the summer months by voters. Such polls also usually hit registered voters instead of likely voters. And, history would show that summer polls appear to be biased toward Democrats, consistently overestimating support for the party. Polls begin to become more accurate post Labor Day as polling switches to likely voter concentration and voters become more engaged. Even then, there is some evidence that GOP support has been undercounted nationally and in some statewide races for the past several election cycles.
The latest polls and forecasts
As usual, I comb numerous websites that track polls and predict election outcomes to come up with my views. Shout out to Real Clear Politics/Polling, The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and 270 to Win as really good sources for all things elections, polls, and predictions. As an aside, Real Clear Politics’ publishing arm published my book, The Healthcare Labyrinth (available at this site).
Hurting GOP prospects is the fact that President Trump’s latest approval rating average is very low. The Real Clear Politics latest average is about the same as it has been for months – roughly 40% approval and 57% disapproval. That 17-point unfavourability certainly favors Democrats in the midterms.
The latest Real Clear Politics 2026 generic ballot shows the Democrats up about 6.4 percentage points.
What about the markets? Polymarket has House control at 90% Democrat (it was 82% in my last report). Kalshi has it at 84% (it was 78% in my last report). Polymarket has Senate control at 51% Democrat (it was 56% Republican in my last report). Kalshi has Senate control at 51% Republican (it was 58% in my last report).
The Senate status
I still think it is more likely than not that the Senate is controlled by the GOP after the midterms, but this truly has become a toss-up year for the upper chamber. The president’s negative polls, the war, and economy all will weigh the GOP down in swing states. The result of at least one primary creates even more unease for the GOP. However, the blow up of one Democratic candidate and the result of a Democratic primary in another state gives hope that the GOP will maintain a vulnerable seat and potentially flip another.
I continue to see at least nine Senate races in play out of 35 up for election (22 GOP and 13 Democrat).
Alaska (R): Toss Up – Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola (who won statewide) is clearly leading GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan (she was up 2% in early August) and won the first jungle primary phase considerably – 49.5% to 41.4% — in mid-August. While Alaska is a GOP state, Peltola is a moderate and this one will come down to the wire given the quirkiness of the state.
Texas (R): Open — Toss Up – The result of the GOP primary (state AG Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn) is turning out to be a disaster for Republicans. Cornyn would likely have won the race considerably in the end, but the race is now a Toss Up due to Paxton’s controversies, unpopularity, and much more rightist views than Cornyn’s. Polling averages put Democrat James Tallarico up by about 2%. I continue to have a hard time believing Democrats can win in this reliably Red state, but it is not out of the question.
Maine (R): Toss Up: Popular leftist Democratic Graham Platner’s campaign blew up due to scandals. Democrats had to quickly replace him with Troy Jacons, a progressive former state Senate president. Jackson is polling about 2% ahead of long-term and moderate GOP Sen. Susan Collins. For some reason, Polymarket has Jackson a 70% favorite. I don’t buy this at all. Collins polled well behind in her last election and won big. This is her biggest challenge yet, but you never count her out.
Michigan (D): Open – Toss Up: This should be very close with former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers coming back from a Senate try last cycle against a socialist Democratic primary victor, physician Abdul El-Sayed. President Trump’s approval is worse in Michigan than the national average. This will weigh down Rogers. But El-Sayed may be too radical for the tastes of this blue collar state. El-Sayed’s moderate primary opponent might have won handily in the general given the anti-Red sentiment right now.
Ohio (R): Toss Up: Former Senator Sherrod Brown (deposed in 2024) is back to reclaim a seat from GOP incumbent Jon Husted. Brown is up about 2.5%. Trump is unpopular in Ohio, which means this will be a close race. Brown could win, but I have a hard time thinking this now reliably Red state will boot Husted.
Iowa: (R): Open – Toss Up to Lean Republican: U.S. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is up about 1.5% over state Democratic lawmaker Josh Turek. This farm state has been battered by tariffs and soaring input prices due to the war. I still feel the edge goes to the Republicans.
New Hampshire (D) — OPEN: Toss Up to Lean Democrat – Former U.S. Senator John Sununu is likely to win an upcoming primary and is running to reclaim his seat in an increasingly Democratic state. His brother, former Governor Chris Sununu would have been more formidable. Sununu likely will face Democratic U.S. Rep Chris Pappas. While the polling average favors Pappas by 2% right now, Sununu appears to be topping Pappas or is in a statistical dead heat in some more recent polls.
North Carolina (R) — OPEN – Leans Democrat — Popular former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper looks strong against former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. But the Republican appears to be closing the polling gap coming out of summer.
Georgia (D): Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat – Incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff has a huge war chest. He polls ahead of GOP U.S. Rep. Mike Collins by 7.5%.
Others to Watch:
- Minnesota – Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat
- Nebraska – Leans Republican to Likely Republican
- Kansas – Leans Republican to Likely Republican
- Montana – Leans Republican to Likely Republican
- South Carolina: Likely Republican
Senate races are less tied to prevailing national sentiment, although it can count as we saw in 2024. With Trump’s unpopularity, it is hard to predict too many pickups of vulnerable Democratic seats, although NH and MI remain possible. At the same time, I do not believe that strong GOP states such as TX, IA and OH all crumble. NC will go Democrat due to Cooper’s popularity. GA is very likely for Ossoff and I think Collins can pull through in Maine.
The Senate is 53-47 right now. I think it is very unlikely that the GOP loses 4 of the 6 competitive Republican-held seats above. They need just 3 of the 9 seats in contention (just 3 of their seats or just 2 if they pick up one Democratic seat). I see a 60% to 67% chance the GOP maintains control. Worst case, Republicans hold 50 or 51 and control the Senate. Best case they stay even at 53. Likely outcome – 51 or 52 seats.
The House status
I continue to believe the Democrats will very likely win back the House. It is only a question of how sizeable their majority will be.
Gerrymandering over the years has meant most House seats are not at all competitive. The GOP is almost assured of winning between 194 and 202 seats, with Democrats almost guaranteed between 187 and 196. That leaves between 37 and 54 seats truly competitive — known as Lean Republican, Lean Democrat, or Toss Up — just 8.5% to 12.4% of all seats. But in these districts, public sentiment and candidate quality will hold great sway and many of these seats are now open due to a record number of retirements.
How many seats will Democrats hold? Current public sentiment is on Democrats’ side. But the most recent gerrymandering frenzy has tended to help the GOP a bit. Thus, if the Democrats win the House as expected, they could have very little room to maneuver — similar to the predicament in which the GOP finds itself now. If the Democrats win control, my low estimate is that Democrats could take as few as 218, a 1-vote majority and could lose no votes on key legislation. My high estimate is 228, a 21-vote majority and Democrats could lose just 10 votes on key legislation.
But given the small number of seats in contention and local dynamics, it is not out of the question that things could swing a bit to the GOP for them to maintain control. Democrats need to maintain 5% to 6% favorability on the generic ballot to win control. A small swing in the generic ballot could push things the other way. I see just a 1 in 5 chance of that happening right now. This outside chance could mean the GOP maintains control with between 218 to 220 seats.
So, control is that close in the House — a result of the precedent set by the Massachusetts legislature in 1812 when it redistricted state and national offices to enhance control of the Democratic-Republican party (the presursor of today’s Democratic party). Then-Governor Elbridge Gerry, who was a Democrat-Republican, is said to have been repulsed by what the legislature did, especially the creation of a district that looked like a salamander. Nonetheless, such redisticting exploits have now become known as “Gerrymandering.”
#elections2026 #trump #congress
— Marc S. Ryan
