House very likely to go Democratic with Senate in favor of GOP but increasingly in play
A quick blog and a little off topic from my regular entries today. As many of you know, I have been involved in politics all my life – at the local, state, and national levels. I love taking periodic peaks at how elections are shaping up. In the past, I have offered my predictions on elections and today we will take a look at the status of the 2026 midterm elections for Congress in both chambers.
My earlier prediction for 2026 midterms
When I wrote my annual healthcare prediction blog for the coming year on December 31, 2025, I predicted the following for the 2026 midterms:
(1) The Senate would maintain its GOP majority and have between 51 and 53 seats going into January 2027. Today’s Senate count is 53 for the GOP and 47 for Democrats/independents.
(2) The House would definitely flip to Democratic control. I said Democrats would gain between 20 and 30 seats, giving them 235 to 245 seats to the GOP’s 190 to 200. Today’s House count is 218 for the GOP and 214 for Democrats, with 3 vacancies (two GOP seats and one Democratic).
What usually happens in midterms?
Politics is more predictable than fickle. I looked at every midterm election since 1934. If I have this right, only on two occasions has the party in control of the White House gained seats in both houses at midterm elections. A third midterm sort of meets the test.
In 1934, the Democrats under Franklin Delano Roosevelt gained 9 seats in each house. In 2002, George W. Bush’s Republicans gained 8 seats in the House and 2 in the Senate. Bill Clinton sort of makes the list in 1998. His Democratic Party gained 5 seats in the House and maintained numbers in the Senate. In each of these cases, some major event was occurring: (1) the Great Depression; (2) the 2001 terrorist attacks; and (3) the impeachment attempt on Clinton.
If you look at gaining membership in one house, the results show the following:
- John F. Kennedy – 1962 – Lost 4 in House; Gained 3 in Senate
- Richard Nixon – 1970 – Lost 12 seats in House; Gained 2 in Senate
- Ronald Reagan – 1982 – Lost 26 seats in House; Gained 1 in Senate
- Donald Trump – 2018 – Lost 40 seats in House; Gained 2 in Senate
- Joe Biden – 2022 – Lost 9 seats in House; Gained 1 seat in Senate
In these 23 midterms, 12 presidents had popularity over 50% and just in 5 midterms did the president’s party gain seats in 1 or more houses.
In sum, the power of White House incumbency is not strong in midterm elections. Thus, the GOP would be bucking historical trends if it kept control of both houses, especially given the very tight margins in each house.
According to daily tracking polls, President Trump’s approval rating sits in the low 40s (43%). In terms of whether Americans feel the country is going in the right direction or not, that sits in the high 30s (37%). What’s more, Trump and the GOP seemingly have lost their edge on two major issues – the economy and immigration. Approval there sits in the low 40s as well. These numbers certainly complicate the midterm picture for them. The issue of affordability, an issue that dogged Joe Biden and Democrats in 2024, now is impacting Republicans. Healthcare affordability and the fallout of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) look also to be a headwind for the GOP.
The generic preference ballot right now sits at about 5% in favor of Democrats.
So let’s get to my updated predictions. As usual, I comb numerous websites that track polls and predict election outcomes to come up with my views. Shout out to Real Clear Politics/Polling, The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and 270 to Win as really good sources for all things elections, polls, and predictions. As an aside, Real Clear Politics’ publishing arm published my book, The Healthcare Labyrinth (available at this site).
The Senate status
The GOP still looks likely to maintain control after the midterms, but this has become less clear over time – creating great anxiety for Republicans. In November 2025, the GOP was 75% likely to maintain control of the upper chamber, according to Polymarket. That is now just 54%. Kalshi pegs that at about 53%.
There are seven competitive races out of 35 up for election (22 GOP and 13 Democrat). And here is my take on the seats right now.
- Michigan (D): Toss Up
- North Carolina (R): Toss Up
- Georgia (D): Toss Up to Lean Democrat
- Maine (R): Toss Up
- Ohio (R): Leans Republican
- Alaska (R): Leans Republican
- New Hampshire (D): Leans Democrat
Senate races are less tied to prevailing national sentiment, although it can count as we saw in 2024. I think the best case for Republicans in the Senate is they get to 54 — they gain two of MI, GA, and NH and lose NC). The worst case is that they sit at 49 and lose the chamber – they lose NC, ME, OH, and AK in a Democratic sweep of GOP highly contested seats. The most likely scenario is they lose NC and perhaps one of the other three GOP highly contested seats for a 51or 52 seat majority.
I have found that you never count Susan Collins out. She seems to be polling over others right now. But this will be one of her toughest fights yet, especially due to her votes in favor of a number of Trump initiatives. I feel OH will stay GOP. Alaska should stay GOP but it is a wild card these days with ranked choice voting and former Rep. Mary Peltola jumping in the race.
Some may wonder why Texas is not on my competitive race list. With the win of a more mainstream Democrat in that party’s primary, the state is one to watch. But right now incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is still in the race, having taken he most votes against two other candidates in the GOP primary. Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton are headed to a May runoff. If Cornyn wins, the race will be Likely Republican. If the more conservative and controversial Paxton wins, the race likely shifts to Lean Republican and makes my list of competitive races, perhaps adding to problems for the GOP to maintain control. But I continue to think it will be hard for a Democrat to win a statewide race. That has not happened since 1994.
The House status
I continue to believe the Democrats will definitely win back the House; it is only a question of how sizeable their majority will be. Kalshi and Polymarket say there is about an 84% and 85%, respectively, chance Democrats will be in control in 2027.
Given gerrymandering, including some changes this year by both parties, the GOP is assured of winning about 202 seats, with Democrats guaranteed between 194 and 197. That leaves about 36 to 39 seats truly competitive (known as Lean Republican, Lean Democrat, or Toss Up) – just 8% to 9% of all seats. But in these districts, public sentiment and candidate quality will hold great sway and many of these seats are now open due to retirements.
How many seats will Democrats hold? I said late last year, Democrats would gain between 20 and 30 seats, giving them 235 to 245 seats to the GOP’s 190 to 200. My latest estimates suggest Democrats will have between 220 and 230 to the GOP’s 205 to 215. The number is down from my earlier estimate due to some redistricting and other impacts, but the Democrats could gain 10 to 15 seats more if the GOP’s popularity continues to erode (putting the numbers closer to my earlier estimate). All of this suggests that, in the worst case, Democrats in 2027 have a razor-thin majority like the GOP does now, or in the best case a more comfortable one.
#2026midterms #congress #trump #healthcare
— Marc S. Ryan
