The polls now point to Democrats easily taking the House and more likely than not to take the Senate
Back on October 8, I told you that Democrats would easily take the House and their margins there were growing. However, I still said that the Senate was 50-50, with the GOP likely to have 50 or 51 seats and control the chamber because the White House is Republican.
Now, we are here for the last update for the midterms. And the math looks increasingly daunting for the GOP perhaps to keep any chamber. Coming out of the summer political doldrums, the Democrats have maintained the edge as affordability, the war, and energy costs are top of mind for voters.
The GOP at a disadvantage
As I have said in past blogs on the midterms, the GOP has a huge uphill battle to keep control of both chambers. I looked at every midterm election since 1934. No matter how popular a president might be, only on two occasions has the party in control of the White House gained seats in both houses at midterm elections. A third midterm sort of meets the test. In the 23 midterms I looked at, 12 presidents had popularity over 50% and just in 5 midterms did the president’s party gain seats in 1 or more houses.
In sum, the power of White House incumbency is not strong in midterm elections. Thus, the GOP would be bucking historical trends if it keeps control of both houses, especially given the very tight margins in each house.
The latest polls and forecasts
As usual, I combed numerous websites that track polls and predict election outcomes to come up with my views. Shout out to Real Clear Politics/Polling, The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and 270 to Win as really good sources for all things elections, polls, and predictions. As an aside, Real Clear Politics’ publishing arm published my book, The Healthcare Labyrinth (available at this site).
Hurting GOP prospects is the fact that President Trump’s latest approval rating average is still very low, driven by affordability, inflation, and the Iran war. The Real Clear Politics latest average is roughly 39% approval, with a net favorability of minus 20% — only 2% better than when I last wrote.
Worse, the latest Real Clear Politics 2026 generic ballot shows the Democrats up about 8.5% with Democratic support now at about 52%. This is up from 7.9% when I last wrote. Given gerrymandering, only about 10 to 15% of seats are actually competitive. Various models said that Democrats need to maintain 5% to 6% favorability on the generic ballot to win control of the House. Thus, Democrats may have a big margin in the lower chamber now.
What about the markets? Polymarket has House control at 95% Democrat. Kalshi has it at 94%. Polymarket has Senate control at 73% Democrat. Kalshi has it at 72%. I am a little more dubious about the Senate numbers than the House ones. See Senate section below.
The Senate status
More and more, I have become less confident the GOP will maintain control despite the so-called math advantage. Democrats’ chances are increasing. The president’s negative polls, the war, and economy all are weighing down the GOP in swing states. When I last wrote, I moved from 60% to 67% GOP to roughly 50-50. I said the GOP would maintain 50 or 51 seats to control the chamber. But where am I now?
Here is how I see the competitive 14 races stacking up out of 35 up for election (22 GOP and 13 Democrat).
The 7 easy ones – Democrats +1 Solidly
Minnesota — Lean Dem to Likely Dem: Democrat Peggy Flanagan is topping Republican Michelle Tafoja now by 5.2%, up from 1.6%. Democrats will keep this seat.
New Hampshire — Lean Dem to Likely Dem: Democratic U.S. Rep Chris Pappas is ahead of former Sen. John Sununu by 8%. Democrats will keep this seat.
Florida — Lean Rep to Likely Rep: Incumbent appointed GOP Sen. Ashley Moody is ahead by 6.3%. Republicans will keep this seat.
Georgia — Likely Dem: Incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Osoff appears to be headed for an easy victory and is up by 8.6% in polls. Democrats will keep this seat.
Nebraska –Lean Rep to Likely Rep: Incumbent GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts is 3.7% up on average in recent polls. Republicans will keep this seat.
South Carolina – Toss Up to Lean Rep: Incumbent GOP Sen. Darlene Graham is up by 2.6% in a reliable GOP state. Republicans will keep this seat.
North Carolina — Likely Dem: Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is well ahead, with a lead of 11% D. This will be a Democratic flip state.
The 7 hard ones – 5 potential Democratic flips
Michigan – Toss Up to Lean Dem: I would have told you that progressive Democrat Dr. Abdul E-Sayed was too left-wing for this purple state, but he has maintained a 5.3% lead. This is so even in GOP leaning polls. Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost to El-Sayed in the Democratic primary, has endorsed Republican Mike Rogers. That could influence the final outcome, but I think El-Sayed will win. Democrats will keep this seat.
Iowa – Toss Up: Polls show U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinton up by just 0.1%, with a recent poll showing her opponent up by 4%. While the war and tariffs have battered this state and Josh Turek is battling hard, I think Hinton will eke it out in this open seat contest. Republicans will keep this seat.
Kansas – Toss Up: Incumbent GOP Sen. Roger Marshall is in a battle with Democrat Adam Hamilton. Polls show Hamilton up by 4.1% on average, but up 5% to 7% in recent polls. A month ago, this was a tighter race. Hamilton is an attractive candidate, and tariffs and the war have crippled this farm state. The momentum is with the Democrats. I see this as a potential Democratic flip state.
Texas – Toss up: Recent poll shows Democratic state Rep. James Tallarico up by 2% on average, but one recent poll showing a Tie. Paxton’s controversies and unpopularity create challenges with retaining the seat. I see this as a potential Democratic flip state.
Alaska – Toss Up: Former moderate Democratic U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola has led incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan narrowly but consistently. Right now, that is an average of just 1%. But a new scandal could impact the race. The New York Times reports that Democrats in Alaska, including some on Peltola’s campaign, recruited another “Dan Sullivan” to be on the ballot to confuse voters. I see this as a potential Democratic flip state.
Ohio – Toss Up: Incumbent GOP Sen. Jon Husted is up against former deposed Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. Brown is up 2.8%. A new poll has Brown up by 2% and another Husted up by 2%. All this is within the margin of error. Ohio has become a reliably Red state, but I see this as a potential Democratic flip state.
Maine – Toss Up: Incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins is down 3.6% against Democrat Troy Jackson, the former state Senate president. A new poll has her up by 2%. I see this as a potential Democratic flip state.
Poll bias
Mitigating all this for the GOP is inherent bias in polls. Analyses consistently find GOP underrepresentation in polls in many states. I went back to 2020 and looked at the final polls and how the GOP actually performed.
Michigan — 2 to 4 better – El Sayed lately is well over this.
Iowa — 2 to 4.5% better – this would pad Hinton’s lead, but data can be sparse as well.
Kansas – Marshall did 8.5% better in 2020, but data is sparse. This could make the race much closer than the 4 to 10% lead Hamilton has in one poll.
Texas — 3 to 5% better on election day. This would clearly move the race to the GOP.
Alaska – Sullivan did 5 to 8% better in 2020. Polling in Alaska is difficult, but this would move things toward the GOP.
Ohio — 2 to 3% better. This would even the race even more.
Maine – In 2020, Collins performed 11 to 12% better. She always overperforms.
So, I do not look at polls alone, but count at least three other factors:
— Potential poll bias and undercounting of the Republican vote as noted above.
— Historical voting patterns, which favor the GOP in the Red states above.
— The fact that final vote spreads tend to be lower than the generic ballot.
Now, all this being said, this may or may not play out in 2026, especially due to the unpopularity of the president and economic challenges for voters. And I do not believe that any of this fundamentally changes the result in favor of the GOP. It simply points to things being a lot closer than both prediction markets and some political analysts may say.
Senate prediction
Putting all this in context, we have one sure flip in North Carolina and five more potential Democratic flips. With at least six total Democratic flips in play, I think Democrats have a 55% to 60% shot at taking the Senate chamber now by winning at least four seast back. My probability is much below the market estimates because they do need to win 57% of 7 competitive seats (assuming NC is in the bag) to wrest control and the Red state wall that sort of exists today even with an unpopular president. The Senate is 53-47 right now.
Do the Dems have 4?
In the end, I think Texas will stay GOP and that Collins will win in Maine.
The Democrats have North Carolina in the bag and will flip it.
That leaves Kansas, Alaska and Ohio. Democrats would need to win all three unless others I have ruled out such as Maine and Texas flip. Energy costs, data centers, and affordability issues say Democrats do have the edge to flip these three. Brown is a popular figure in Ohio as is Peltola in Alaska. Kansas is a farm state that is being killed by energy costs and tariffs, and Marshall has run a terrible campaign. On the other hand, the relative redness of Kansas and Ohio and the new scandal in Alaska involving the Peltola campaign makes it a tall task to move four total states to the Democratic column. But I have moved from 50 or 51 in favor of GOP control last month to 51 for the Democrats (they control). There is an outside chance Democrats get to 52. The best the GOP can do is 50-50 in my view.
The House status
The Democrats are sure to win control of the House and their vote margins appear to be growing by the day. I predicted last month the Democrats would win control and have 227 and 237 seats. Things have moved even more toward the Democrats. Democrats appear guaranteed to win 203 to 207 seats, with the GOP taking 178 to 179. That leaves 49 to 54 in play. I believe Democrats will have 235 to 245 seats and have a very comfortable margin in the lower chamber.
#elections2026 #trump #congress
— Marc S. Ryan
