The House still looks very likely Democrat, with the Senate still in limbo
As the midterms approach, I always give you a fresh look at what could happen in terms of control of Congress. My last look was roughly a quarter ago on March 12. I likely will do so again sometime just after the summer ends as we really get into campaign season. Since I am a political junkie, I might give you a monthly update (and even more frequently at the end) until November 3 hits. As I have said, healthcare will be a big part of how votes are cast in November. Affordability overall is a top issue this election year and healthcare affordability dominates this issue in many ways.
The GOP at a disadvantage
You can go back to my March 12 blog here ( https://www.healthcarelabyrinth.com/a-look-at-the-status-of-congressional-midterm-elections/ ) but wanted to quickly refresh on the uphill battle the GOP has to keep control of both chambers.
I looked at every midterm election since 1934. No matter how popular a president might be, only on two occasions has the party in control of the White House gained seats in both houses at midterm elections. A third midterm sort of meets the test. In the 23 midterms I looked at, 12 presidents had popularity over 50% and just in 5 midterms did the president’s party gain seats in 1 or more houses.
In sum, the power of White House incumbency is not strong in midterm elections. Thus, the GOP would be bucking historical trends if it kept control of both houses, especially given the very tight margins in each house.
What are some of the experts saying?
Former Trump White House adviser Steve Bannon, still a staunch ally of the president, predicted that Republicans will lose its majority in the Senate. That is a stunning turnaround from late last year, where the GOP had a virtual lock on retaining control of the upper chamber.
At the same time, former Bush White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove says that while Democrats hold an advantage overall, it does not necessarily point to a blue wave. He says Democrats need at least a 5 to 6-point overall advantage in the polls to take back the House. He also notes that Republicans are mildly advantaged by recent redistricting battles.
The latest polls and forecasts
As usual, I comb numerous websites that track polls and predict election outcomes to come up with my views. Shout out to Real Clear Politics/Polling, The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and 270 to Win as really good sources for all things elections, polls, and predictions. As an aside, Real Clear Politics’ publishing arm published my book, The Healthcare Labyrinth (available at this site).
Hurting GOP prospects is the fact that President Trump’s latest approval rating average is very low. The Real Clear Politics latest average is just over 40% approval, with 57% disapproval. That 17-point unfavourability needs to be turned around if the GOP is to avoid major losses.
The latest RealClear Politics generic ballot shows the Democrats up just over 6-points. But the generic ballot has been tightening a bit of late, with a Marquette poll showing the Democratic advantage at just 1 point.
What about the markets? Polymarket has House control at 82% Democrat (it was 85% in my last report). Kalshi has it at 78% (it was 84% in my last report). Polymarket has Senate control at 56% GOP (it was 54% in my last report). Kalshi has Senate control at 58% GOP (it was 53% in my last report). So, there is some slight rebound for Republicans despite challenging polls, the Iran war, and the economy.
The Senate – I still think it is more likely than not that the Senate is controlled by the GOP after the midterms, but this truly has become a toss-up in my view. The president’s negative polls, the war, and economy all will weigh the GOP down in swing states. And the result of at least one primary creates even more unease for the GOP.
When last I wrote, I reported seven competitive races out of 35 up for election (22 GOP and 13 Democrat). Now, there are at least 9 races that are competitive.
Alaska (R): Toss Up to Leans Republican – Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is leading GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan in a crowded primary. The top four advance to the general election with ranked choice voting – a huge wild card.
Georgia (D): Toss Up to Leans Democrat – Incumbent Democratic Jon Ossoff has a huge war chest. He polls ahead of GOP potential candidates by 5 points or more. But he is polling below 50% for re-election.
Iowa (R) — OPEN: Toss Up to Leans Republican — Rep. Ashley Hinson looks favored, but Trump is increasingly unpopular in Iowa due to farm issues resulting from tariffs.
Maine (R): Toss Up: Democrat Graham Platner is polling well ahead of incumbent Republican Susan Collins. But Platner appears scandal-ridden despite his populist appeal. Collins polled behind in her last election and won. This is her biggest challenge yet, but you never count her out. And Platner’s scandals could grow.
Michigan (D) — OPEN: Toss Up – This should be very close with Mike Rogers coming back from a Senate try last cycle.
North Carolina (R) — OPEN: Toss Up to Leans Democrat — Popular former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper looks strong.
New Hampshire (D) — OPEN: Toss Up to Leans Democrat – Form U.S. Senator John Sununu is running to reclaim his seat in an increasingly Democratic state. His brother, former Governor Chris Sununu would have been more formidable.
Ohio (R): Toss Up to Leans Republican – Former Sen. Sherrod Brown is strong against GOP incumbent Jon Husted in an increasingly solid Red state. How much will Trump’s unpopularity bolster the moderate Brown?
Texas (R) — OPEN: Toss Up to Leans Republican – GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton is a terrible general election candidate against Democrat James Tallarico. Polls are tight, but this is still a red state.
Senate races are less tied to prevailing national sentiment, although it can count as we saw in 2024. With Trump’s unpopularity, it is becoming harder and harder to make the case that the GOP can pick up the Democratic open seats in NH and MI. At the same time, I do not believe that the GOP will lose IA or TX. Democrats will hold GA and take NC.
That would give the GOP 49 seats with 3 states in question – ME, AK, and OH. Each is now held by Republicans. Republicans would have to lose all three to lose the Senate, which in my mind remains unlikely. Look for a 50-50 to 51-49 outcome for the GOP. Because the Vice President is a Republican, the GOP would control the Senate. But I would not be surprised that the stars could align for Democrats to control 51-49.
The House status
I continue to believe the Democrats will definitely win back the House; it is only a question of how sizeable their majority will be. Kalshi and Polymarket say there is about an 82% and 78%, respectively, chance Democrats will be in control in 2027. This is done from 84% and 85%.
Given gerrymandering, including some changes this year by both parties, the GOP is assured of winning between 201 and 207 seats, with Democrats guaranteed between 191 and 193. That leaves between 35 to 43 seats truly competitive (known as Lean Republican, Lean Democrat, or Toss Up) – just 8% to 10% of all seats. But in these districts, public sentiment and candidate quality will hold great sway and many of these seats are now open due to retirements.
How many seats will Democrats hold? My current estimate suggests Democrats take the chamber with between 218 and 225. Despite the sentiment, gerrymandering means the Democrats likely have very little room to maneuver as the GOP does today. But Rove’s point is a good one. Based on the numbers, the GOP only needs to take just over a third of truly contested seats. That 5% to 6% generic ballot favorability for Democrats needs to stay through early November for the Democrats to regain the chamber.
#midterms #trump #congress #healthcare #coverage
— Marc S. Ryan
