A Trump victory would mean a sea change in healthcare policy
The election is less than two weeks away. Given the huge sea change that could occur in healthcare policy, I thought it was time to devote a blog to my predictions on what might occur in the presidential, Senate and Houses races.
I am a politics follower from way back. Early on in my career, I was a rightist youngster working for political action committees and political organizations. Later I was an editorial writer and political columnist prognosticating on state and local races. I also ran state legislative campaigns. As a governor’s appointee, I was smack in the middle of polls and political strategy.
Predicting elections is a fool’s errand
What I learned through all of this is that predicting elections is very much a fool’s errand. It is never over until it is truly over and polls are only as good as the guy (or gal) conducting them.
I have a healthy skepticism of polls. I tend to approach individual polls cautiously and look for trends over time. As the election approaches, I look to potential changes in voter sentiment. After all, the so-called swing voters who decide many elections are not making their choice until late in the overall process.
A fool’s approach to prognosticating the next president
For what it is worth from this fool, here is my approach to analyzing what the national elections look like. First, I use the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling averages updated each day. Why? Because individual polls mean nothing. They could be from Democratic or Republican leaning entities. Depending on the sample, they could also skew toward Democrats or Republicans. Too, polls can be taken of registered or likely voters, which can make a huge difference.
Given all these variables, I look closely at the RCP average of polls over time. This is the best way to take bias out of polls and get a reasonable take on what is happening. RCP is a non-partisan organization. Its analysis is unbiased. (And, oh by the way, I like them because RCP’s publishing arm was co-publisher of my book, The Healthcare Labyrinth — available at this site.)
Further, there are also good pollsters and bad ones. This could be due to bias or just being a sloppy polling outfit. This is borne out by how off some polls are compared with others. Polls tend to have a margin of error, but some polling outfits’ polls perform well outside of the margin of errors. We know this from poll predictions in 2016 and 2020 compared with final results. I know these bad pollsters and tend to discount them in my analysis, even if they are included in RCP’s averages.
Related to the above, I note that polls have tended to undercount Trump and the GOP in polls historically. Again, this could be bias, who answers polls, and who are included in surveys in the first place. As one example, certain groups, such as those without a college education, may not be included in the right proportion and this impacts poll results.
Undecideds tend to choose late. As the election gets down to the wire, I next turn to what has been happening over the past several weeks as long as multiple polls are available.
What do I predict will happen in the presidential race
In terms of the national popular vote, the race remains very close and the popular vote is now a tie in the tracking polls over the past two weeks. Some would argue that Harris is likely to win the popular vote as Democrats did in 2016 and 2020. This is so given the heavy Democratic population bases in the West and Northeast. But for the first time Trump is winning or tying the popular vote in a series of polls. The last 12 polls have Trump up in 5, Harris up in 5, and tied in 2. In the last 4 polls, Trump is tied in 2, up 2% in 1, and up 3% in 1. We may see polls where Harris comes on top, but Trump will likely go ahead in the RCP average. The trend shows Trump surging and he has a shot at winning the popular vote.
But the popular vote means nothing in the presidential election
Most know that the popular vote actually means nothing. It is the electoral college that chooses our presidents. There are 538 electoral college votes – 435 representing each congressional district, 100 representing each senator, and three for the District of Columbia (D.C.). In 48 states and D.C., the winner of the popular vote wins all of the electoral votes in that state or D.C. In Nebraska and Maine, the winner of the popular vote in each congressional district is awarded one vote. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded two votes.
So, there it is, this is a race to win individual states and not the popular vote.
The toss-up states decide the presidential race
Harris or Trump are almost undoubtedly winning some or all the electoral votes in all but about 9 states. Harris has about 215 electoral votes wrapped up, meaning the states are safe, likely, or leaning toward her. Trump has about 219 electoral votes wrapped up. That leaves 104 that are rated as Toss Up – anyone can win. The problem for Harris is that Trump holds a 0.9% lead in polls across these nine Toss Ups. He holds the following RCP polling average leads. What’s more he appears to be surging now in some states.
State and Electoral Votes | Status of Race |
Arizona (11) | Trump up 1.5%; ahead 0 to 5% in seven polls the last two weeks |
Georgia (16) | Trump up 2.2%; ahead 0 to 6% in eight polls the last two week |
Michigan (15) | Trump up 0.2%; In six polls the last two weeks, Trump ahead in three polls, Harris in two, and one tie. Range is Harris plus 4 to Trump plus 3. |
Minnesota (10) | Harris up 4.7% |
Nevada (6) | Trump up 0.7%; ahead 0 to 2% in six polls the last two weeks |
North Carolina (16) | Trump up 0.8%; In ten polls the last two weeks, Trump ahead in six polls, Harris in three, and one tie. Range is Harris plus 3 to Trump plus 5. Trump won both in 2016 and 2020 and remains the favorite. |
Pennsylvania (19) | Trump up 0.6%; In seven polls the last two weeks, Trump ahead in five polls, Harris in two. Range is Harris plus 3 to Trump plus 3. |
Wisconsin (10) | Trump ahead by 0.2%; In six polls the last two weeks, Trump ahead in two polls, Harris in one, and three ties. Range is Harris plus 1 to Trump plus 2. |
Nebraska House District (HD #2) (1) | Harris up 9% to 11% (little polling) |
Total Toss Up Electoral Votes = 104 |
While you can argue all of these appear in or close to the margin of error for polling, the problem for Harris is that she needs 55 more electoral votes to win. Minnesota and Nebraska HD#2 give her 11. Let’s give her Wisconsin (which neighbors Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz’s Minnesota) for now for 10 more. She would need 34 more electoral votes.
Trump looks good to win Arizona and Georgia for 27.
This means she would have to win Pennsylvania and either North Carolina or Michigan OR North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada.
Those are some tough odds with Trump’s polling across the swing states and his recent numbers in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Thus, the electoral college looks more and more likely to go to Trump, who could win very close to or top 300 electoral votes. Based on the polling average today, Trump would win 312 to 226.
One last point here: I continue to believe that Republicans tend to be undercounted in most polls. The mismatch between Trump’s results in 2016 and 2020 compared with polling in the weeks prior to the election was major. I doubt this has changed. The average polling error since 1972 in the key swing states has been 3.4 percentage points. With Trump surging of late and the 2016 and 2020 previous history, it is a fair bet that polls undercount his support.
Handicapping the Senate races and majority
The GOP is the favorite to win the Senate majority back, but it could get complicated. Still, things would have to go very bad on election day for the GOP not to re-claim control.
Right now, Democrats control 51-49 (with independent support). The GOP is assured to pick up the Democratic seat being vacated by retiring moderate Democrat Joe Manchin in West Virginia. Democrat Max Baucus is badly behind his Republican challenger in Montana. That would seem to give the GOP at least 51 seats as long as both Nebraska Senate seats that happen to be up stay Republican (see below).
Latest polls show Republican candidates closing in on vulnerable Democrats in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The GOP candidate in an open seat in Michigan may have a shot too. Democrats say GOP senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida are vulnerable. That is hard to buy right now, but I admit it is closer in these states than expected. With Trump surging in some states and the GOP candidates rising, it is possible that the GOP could get 52 to 54 seats when all is said and done.
But there also is an outside chance that Democrats retain Senate control in two complex scenarios. But nearly everything would have to go their way.
In the first scenario, Democrats would have to win all the competitive races and an independent candidate in Nebraska must beat GOP incumbent Deb Fischer. That would make it 50-49 Republicans. The Nebraska independent, Osborn, then would have to vote for the Democrats to control the chamber, although he says he will not caucus with either party. If he did vote with the Democrats, then whoever wins the White House controls the Senate. Small-sample polls show a very tight race in this Nebraska race, with Fischer slightly ahead in the latest poll with as many as 5% undecided. Fischer has to count on Trump’s coattails in a heavily GOP state to win. Right now it appears to be going the GOP’s way.
In a second scenario, Democrats would have to win all the competitive races and win either a Florida or Texas seat. This gives them 50-50. They would control with a Democratic White House. If they took the Nebraska seat referenced above and the independent voted for Democrats to control, they would control outright — whether the White House was Democratic or Republican.
One last point here. I also tend to think the undercounting of Republican votes in Senate polls apply here.
Who will win House control
The House is far more complicated. As I always say, gerrymandering has meant that about 90% of House seats are almost pre-determined. That means just 40 to 45 seats are truly competitive.
I rely on a number of political prognosticators for House races – the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and RCP. Here is what each sees as Toss-ups, Lean GOP, and Lean Democrat.
- Cook Political Report – 43 in play
- 5 GOP Leans
- 11 Democrat Leans
- 27 Toss-ups
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball – 43 in play
- 11 GOP Leans
- 18 Democrat Leans
- 14 Toss-ups
- RCP – 50 in play
- 6 GOP Leans
- 12 Democrat Leans
- 32 Toss-ups
Both Cook and Sabato say the Republicans have a virtual lock on 201 and Democrats on 191. RCP says the GOP has a lock on 201 and Democrats on 184 (Cook may have non-voting delegates in total). The consensus would indicate that Republicans need just 17 seats to claim a majority, or a third to 40% of the leans and toss-ups. That clearly advantages the GOP.
But it is complicated. There are about 10 leans and toss-ups in California and New York, which may favor Democrats. About half of the leans and toss-ups are in Democratic-favorable states. As well, the so-called generic ballot is pro-Democrat by about 0.5% right now. On the other hand, about 40% of leans or toss-ups are in GOP or Trump-leaning toss-up states.
So, the House will be a nail-biter, especially because House races tend to be a bit more local than Senate ones and the presidential race. But the outcome in the House could still hinge on last minute developments at the top of the ticket, which could provide coattails for some House races.
Conclusion
Remember my fool’s errand quote above. This is one of the closest races we have ever seen – at least in terms of the popular vote. The presidential electoral vote count, though, could be very different.
#election2024 #trump #harris
— Marc S. Ryan