Budget Bill Stalled In House
The House is in flux right now as Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA, and President Donald Trump are seeking to cajole moderates and conservatives in the GOP caucus to support the Senate version of the Big Beautiful Bill. Conservatives criticize the massive additional overall deficit and debt the Senate bill generates against the House version. They issued a memo criticizing both the Speaker and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-SD, for moving away from the House framework. At the same time, moderates are criticizing the fact that Medicaid cuts are actually higher than in the House bill, especially as it relates to greater limitations on the provider tax and its phasedown to 3%.
Trump and Johnson are having some impact. Between six and 20 GOP votes might have been in the “no” column today, but some are now coming around and saying they will vote for the bill or now are open to doing so. Interestingly, one of two no votes on the initial passage of the House bill, Warren Davidson, R-OH, has now said he will support final passage.
A lack of sufficient support from both moderates and conservatives who visited the White House today so far has stalled a series of procedural votes on the floor. The House likely will be in all night in an attempt to move forward to debate and eventually to pass the bill. I have always argued there is an inevitability associated with passage of the bill, whatever healthcare cuts are in or the impact on the deficit. The GOP sees the Big Beautiful Bill as a seminal event for the party and a movement. But right now there are many to convince before final passage.
In other news, Health Affairs Forefront Blog looks at the major administrative costs of carrying out work requirements in six states.
7/3/2024 1:00 PM UPDATE: The House GOP did get a successful vote early Thursday morning to pass a rule governing debate. The vote was 219-212. Debate has happened and now Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-NY, has all the time he wants as a leader under House rules to give a speech on the bill. At just after 1:00 PM Thursday, Jeffries was still discussing his opposition to the bill and set the record for longest House floor speech, which was about 8.75 hours. A final vote now can occur to adopt the bill.
7/3/2024 3:30 PM UPDATE: The House has passed the Senate version of the Big Beautiful Bill. The vote was 218-214, with just two Republicans voting with all of the Democrats against the measure. The vote caps a saga in the House, then the Senate, and then the House again to ensure enough conservatives and moderates in the GOP caucuses were on the bill.
Additional articles: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/trump-the-next-100-days/5380399-live-updates-house-gop-trump-bill/ and https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5381728-gop-deficit-hawks-trump-megabill-memo/?tbref=hp and https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5381441-white-house-gop-holdouts-trump-megabill/?tbref=hp and https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/one-big-beautiful-bill-medicaid-work-requirements-affordable-care-act-immigrants/ and https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5382760-warren-davidson-trump-big-beautiful-bill/ and https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5382215-house-republicans-delay-vote-gop-opposition/ and https://www.healthaffairs.org/content/forefront/recent-experience-shows-national-medicaid-work-requirements-would-create-enormous
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