CMS Actuary: $9T Healthcare In Our Future
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Actuary released annual outyear growth projections for healthcare. The actuary says U.S. healthcare spending will hit just short of $9 trillion by 2034. That will be 20.6% of gross domestic product (GDP).
While final numbers for 2025 will be tallied by December, the actuary also said healthcare spending was about $5.7 trillion in 2025, up 7.3% from about $5.3 trillion in 2024. That was about 18% of GDP. This is the third straight year of over 7% growth.
The average growth over the decade will be about 5.4%, which is lower than previous projections. But healthcare spending will continue to grow faster than the rest of the economy during the decade period projected.
Utilization increases have been one of the major culprits for aggressive trends the past few years. This will continue in 2026 and may taper off thereafter. Retail prescription drug spending is forecast to grow at the fastest clip over the next decade. Growth in retail prescription drug spending is expected to be 5.7% per year on average for 2025 to 2034, with hospital spending growth at 5.2% per year on average, and physician and clinical services spending growth at 5.5% per year on average during this period.
The insurance rate will go from 91.8% in 2024 to:
- 90.8% in 2026
- 90.4% in 2028
- 90.5% in 2034
The uninsured rate will rise 8.2% to 9.5%.
Interestingly, the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s reductions to Medicaid and the Exchanges as well as the expiration of enhanced premium subsidies are expected to be more modest than Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections.
In other news, healthcare policy group KFF issued a briefer on Medicare spending based on the Medicare Trustees’ June 9 annual report.
Additional articles: https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/finance/us-health-spending-set-reach-9t-2034-cms-report and https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/us-health-spending-spikes-57t-2025/823660/ and https://www.healthaffairs.org/content/forefront/nhe-projections-through-2034-growth-assumptions-policy-consequences and https://www.kff.org/medicare/key-facts-about-medicare-spending-trends-and-projections-from-the-2026-medicare-trustees-report/ and https://www.cms.gov/files/document/national-health-expenditure-projections-results-presentation.pdf and https://www.cms.gov/files/document/nhe-projections-forecast-summary.pdf and https://www.cms.gov/files/document/nhe-projections-infographic.pdf
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#healthcare #spending #cms
https://www.modernhealthcare.com/politics-regulation/mh-us-health-spending-2034-cms/
Trends In A Post-Chevron World
Modern Healthcare looks at the impact of the Supreme Court’s Loper Bright v. Raimondo ruling. The ruling reversed the nearly 40 year old Chevron precedent, which gave great deference to regulatory agencies in implementing statutes through regulations.
Experts so far say the effects have been minor in healthcare and other areas and that lawsuit challenges based on Loper will grow.
There has been at least one major Loper impact in healthcare. Clover Health cited Loper in its successful challenge of its 2026 Star ratings. This led to recalculation of many plans’ scores.
(Articles may require a subscription.)
#chevron #loper #regulations #healthcare
https://www.modernhealthcare.com/politics-regulation/mh-supreme-court-loper-bright-ruling-healthcare
— Marc S. Ryan
