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Glimpse At MA Plan Contraction for 2026 The Medicare Plan Finder for Medicare plans went live today and gave us a glimpse of the plan contractions in Medicare Advantage (MA) for 2026. The recent release of the so-called landscape files did so as well. The number of plans nationwide remained about stable at 5,600 products, but this is a net of expansions and contractions. Major health plans contracted in a number of areas and especially contracted the Preferred Provider Organization (PPO) product. An ATI Advisory analysis says individual MA plans will decrease 9% compared with 2025. Individual excludes Special Needs Plans (SNPs) and employer group MA. Individual Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) and SNPs grew.  Chronic Care SNPs are up 42% from 2025. United county penetration is down 4% nationally, while Humana is down about 6.8% and Aetna down 4.4%. Both Elevance Health and Centene are expanding coverage, up 2.7% and

Trump Delivering On Drug Price Reductions? President Donald Trump came out swinging a few months ago by promising drug price reductions for Americans. And while his policymaking can be seen as messy, in this case it seems to be paying dividends. After recently announcing 100% tariffs on brand drugs, at least one big maker has come to the table with some concessions. Pfizer agreed to provide all of its prescription drugs in the Medicaid program at Trump’s desired most-favored-nation (MFN) drug pricing (where the U.S. would get the lowest price given in any developed country). Pfizer also agreed to offer many of its drugs at a significant discount direct to consumer. Savings will be as high as 85% and be about 50% on average. The administration indicates other deals are in the works. The White House also announced it was rolling out a direct-to-consumer website with medications at discounted prices.

2026 Medicare Advantage Fallout Despite the announcement of a stable Medicare Advantage (MA) environment in 2026 by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) last week, more predictions that 2026 could be a rocky road for both plans and enrollees. Modern Healthcare has a good article on the possible impacts. It says UnitedHealthcare, Humana, Aetna and Elevance Health have all canceled products. Many are announcing elimination of broker commissions for some products and trimmed benefits and networks. There also have been plan pullouts. Deft Research says a record 9.8 million, or 28%, could switch plans, compared with 23% in 2025. This is not those forced to switch due to plan terminations. Some plans, though, are expanding. And investments will continue to be made in Special Needs Plans (SNPs). Humana says it will maintain supplemental benefit investments. At the same time, at least 29 health systems are dropping MA plans

Federal Judge Strikes Risk Adjustment Audit Rule A federal court has vacated the 2023 Medicare Advantage (MA) Risk Adjustment Rule finalized during the Biden years. The court nullified the entire rule not just portions of it. I will write more on this in a blog in coming days. Humana challenged the rule in September 2023 on several grounds:  The court found that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) did not follow the procedural requirements of the Administrative Procedures Act. There were inadequate notice requirements. CMS did not justify its decisions via the comment period, either. Because of the potential harm to plans, the court vacated the rule entirely. The harm really would have been pronounced via retroactive application. Books are closed for prior periods for MA plans. Plans never even had a chance to reserve dollars for potential recoupments as the new rule was published years later. Indeed,

Regional Plans Not Faring Well Despite some studies suggesting regional plans are doing better than national payers during this financial downturn, HealthScape Advisors says regional nonprofit insurance companies are falling behind their larger competitors. It says that in 2024, 71% of regional nonprofit insurers ended the year with an operating loss. By comparison, 53% posted operating losses in 2023, and just 22% did in 2020. In other news, Humana will not pay agents and brokers for enrolling new members in many of its wider-network Medicare Advantage (MA) products for 2026. There will be 288 plans across 46 states and the District of Columbia impacted, about 80% of which are Preferred Provider Organizations (PPOs). Further, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has introduced legislation requiring MA plans to promptly pay out providers’ claims, with up to a $25,000 fine and interest accrual. Plans would have a 14-day deadline to pay electronically submitted,

C-SNPs Could Impact Dual Integration While Medicare Advantage (MA) Dual Eligible Special Needs Plans (D-SNP) membership is growing rapidly, a new Health Affairs Forefront blog calls out that growth in Chronic Care SNPs (C-SNP) could actually create barriers to greater integration of Medicare and Medicaid. The authors note the huge growth in C-SNP enrollment over the past few years. C-SNP product offerings have grown from 303 in 2024 to 372 in 2025. The total number of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in C-SNPs has increased from 629,560 to 1,069,660 in that timeframe. In 2016, there were only 137 C-SNPs with 315,200 beneficiaries. The authors note that in 2025 there are now 125,638 full-benefit dual eligible individuals and 86,815 partial dual eligibles in C-SNPs. About 28% of the full-benefit dual eligible beneficiaries were previously enrolled in a plan that offered some form of integration in the prior year. The authors propose a few

Report Says MA Had $5.7B Underwriting Loss in 2024 Credit rating agency AM Best says that Medicare Advantage (MA) plans had a collective underwriting loss of $5.7B in 2024. From 2019 to 2022, MA made up 40% of underwriting gains and dropped to 20% in 2023. The agency said the losses came from the v28 risk adjustment model (being phased in from 2024 to 2026), lower Star ratings bonus revenue, and high utilization, inflation, and medical costs. About 3 out of 4 insurers with an MA concentration had a loss last year. #medicareadvantage #margins https://www.beckerspayer.com/payer/medicare-advantage/ma-struggles-cited-in-2024-5-7b-underwriting-loss-report ACA Rebates Announced Insurers are announcing the rebates they will pay back to enrollees and employers because medical loss ratios did not meet the minimum requirement of 80% or 85% as dictated by the Affordable Care Act (ACA). UnitedHealthcare announced it needs to pay out $359 million in rebates for 2024. Centene will pay out

PwC Highlights AI-Driven Change In Healthcare A blockbuster report from management consultant PwC predicts that $1 trillion of national healthcare spending could go to digital-first, personalized medical care. PwC also says healthcare is in the process of a monumental shift to artificial-intelligence-driven, consumer-centric healthcare services, which could mean simplified care models emerge that lower costs and increase quality. PwC notes that healthcare spending is expected to grow to $8.6 trillion by 2035, hitting 20% of gross domestic product. And this means health plan and provider executives must rethink care delivery. In terms of payers, PwC notes that medical cost trends are nearing double digits and that payers will be expected to deliver far more with far less. It says AI and other technologies can help build capabilities to deliver medical value and actively manage population risk within the plan and with provider partners. It says payers will increasingly serve as