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December 26, 2025

Exchange Subsidy Deal 50-50 Some lawmakers are saying that there may be a 50-50 shot at obtaining an agreement to extend enhanced Exchange premium subsidies in January. But there are major obstacles. GOP leaders in each house are tending to gravitate toward the larger conservative side of their caucuses, which is dead set against an extension. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-NY, wants either a clean extension or to hang the issue around the GOP’s neck in midterms. Sen. Bill Cassidy is advocating the possibility of extending subsidies as well as seeding health savings accounts (HSAs) for some and giving Americans the ability to decide one way or another. Another leading compromise would extend for two years with some reining in of the generosity of the enhancements. The bill could come to life in this way. Four GOP lawmakers in the House signed on to a Democratic discharge petition which will

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Wakely Study Shows How Annual Wellness In Medicare Can Pay Huge Dividends

An incredible analysis from Wakely Consulting, one of the foremost actuarial firms in the Medicare world. Wakey finds that annual wellness visits (AWVs) can demonstrably help control costs among Medicare beneficiaries. As the firm notes, AWVs are meant to identify disease states and conditions as well as create a care plan to act as a long-term preventive action plan. Wakely looked at a sample of traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare program claims from 2018 – 2023. Beneficiaries who met the criteria for the institutional, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), or new enrollee risk score models were excluded. As well, only Medicare beneficiaries in the community with full calendar year data were included. The final sample comprised 733,532 beneficiaries with data for each year. Wakley also took into consideration social determinant and disease state impacts. Wakely broke out the sample into the following: Wakley found that AWVs are considerably underutilized. About 45% of

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December 23, 2025

Trump Administration Unveils GLP-1 Pilot True to an earlier announcement, the Trump administration has taken the first step toward more expansive coverage of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs in Medicare and Medicaid. The president announced major deals with GLP-1 drug makers Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk that both reduce net costs as well as set a proposed maximum $50 copay in Medicare for all coverage of GLP-1s. The new step includes the creation of the Better Approaches to Lifestyle and Nutrition for Comprehensive hEalth (BALANCE) Model. Under the model, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) negotiates directly with pharmaceutical manufacturers for lower net prices and standardized coverage terms. Negotiation areas include:  Participation will be voluntary for manufacturers, states, and plans. More information will be released in early 2026. The BALANCE Model will launch in Medicaid as early as May 2026 and in Medicare Part D in January 2027. Manufacturers, states,

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December 22, 2025

Strategy On Exchange Subsidies Continues; Another Shutdown Possible House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffires, D-NY, predicted that an extension of enhanced Exchange subsidies will pass the House with backing from both sides of the aisle. “House Democrats are going to continue to fight to get this extension through the Congress on our side. It will pass with a bipartisan majority,” Jeffries told ABC News’ “This Week.” With four GOP members joining Democrats to force a vote on the floor in January via discharge petition, the likelihood is there that the vote could pass. The three-year extension failed in the Senate, unable to get 60 votes. A bipartisan group there still thinks a compromise including a shorter extension, minimum premiums, an income cap, and fraud protections could be hammered out for each chamber. But there are reported barriers to a deal, including political pressures in the GOP caucus not to vote on any

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Courageousness of GOP Moderates

Given the holidays, we are going to be brief this week. Just a few ruminations from me today about recent healthcare events. We will do a quick blog on Friday regarding a great analysis by Wakely Consulting regarding the importance of wellness visits and prevention in Medicare. Next week, we will have my 2025 Healthcare Year in Review on Monday (12/29) and my Healthcare Predictions for the 2026 Year Ahead on that Friday (1/2). Here is wishing everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah (today is the last day), and Happy New Year. The courage of the moderates I have to give great credit to four GOP House moderates who have signed on to a Democratic discharge petition to force a vote in the House on extending the enhanced Exchange premium subsidies. They did so only after House Seaker Mike Johnson, R-LA, broke his promise to allow an amendment vote on

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December 19, 2025

Trump Moves Ball On Drug Prices President Donald Trump registered more wins on drug price reform. The White House announced that nine additional pharmaceutical companies have agreed to follow a most-favored-nation (MFN) drug pricing policy, with some of the companies throwing in several months’ worth of emergency drug supplies. As with other drug firms, the drug companies will lower the Medicaid prices for drugs that are more expensive than they’re sold in other countries, although prices are already deeply discounted through federal and state rebate programs. The firms will also deeply discount cash-pay customers’ drugs via the TrumpRx website. The deals also guarantee MFN prices on all new innovative medicines the nine companies bring to market. Trump has now reached deals with 14 of the 17 drug makers to which he sent letters in July demanding that they lower prices. At the same time, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services

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December 18, 2025

Exchange Saga Top House Democrats on Thursday called on House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA, to hold an immediate vote under the discharge process on extending the enhanced Exchange premium subsidies so they do not expire at the end of the year. Johnson is unlikely to do this due to objections from conservative caucus members. The House adjourns tomorrow for rest of the calendar year. A discharge petition for a bill to extend the subsidies received 218 signatures, including four moderate GOP lawmakers who snubbed the Speaker after he broke promise to run an amendment on the subsidy extension. These members are now working with moderates in the Senate to vote on a consensus bill in January. #exchanges #coverage #healthcare https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5654903-jeffries-democrats-johnson-obamacare-subsidies/?tbref=hp More Charged For Fraud in MN The Department of Justice (DOJ) charged more individuals as part of a huge Medicaid fraud scandal in Minnesota. In part the scandal focuses on

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December Medicare Advantage Enrollment Growth

A quick blog to tell you about enrollment growth in Medicare Advantage (MA) in December 2025. The results show some interesting trends as we go into 2026. Many have predicted that MA enrollment could contract in 2026. I have said on a number of occasions that I doubted we would see that and instead see enrollment that is relatively flat or extremely small in terms of growth. I surmised that while most national plans want to see their enrollment contract by millions, I suspect regional plans will take on the challenge of enrolling robustly despite some financial risks. While it is too early to tell what will happen, we can read some tea leaves in the December data. What do the latest statistics show? Growth from January 2024 to February 2025 was 4.39% or 1.468 million. (I used February 2025 because of issues with the January 2025 statistics.) Enrollment in

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December 17, 2025

Houses Passes GOP Healthcare Reform Bill The House passed its healthcare reform today with no vote or provisions to extend the enhanced Exchange premium subsidies. The vote was 216-211, with one Republican defecting. By and large, the bill does little to solve the affordability problem: The vote comes after Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA, broke his promise to hold a vote on a subsidy amendment. Johnson broke his word after conservatives objected. The GOP leadership blames the backtrack on no plan from moderates to pay for the major cost of the extension. But the caucus recently passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) without major offsets, increasing budget deficits by $4.1 trillion with interest over 10 years. And conservatives on the Rules Committee turned down moderate amendments and simply did not want to allow a subsidy vote. Given the duplicity of the speaker, GOP Reps. Rob Bresnahan (Pa.), Brian Fitzpatrick

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December 16, 2025

Speaker Rebuffs Moderates On Exchange Extension Vote In a rebuff to moderates in his caucus, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA, said he won’t call a vote to extend the Exchange enhanced subsidies. Moderates are livid that the speaker has broken his promise to hold a vote. Johnson says the party’s leadership was unable to reach an agreement with moderates on offsetting cuts to the pricey extension. But moderates did submit multiple amendments to the Rules Committee to pay for part of the extension. Conservatives refused to vote to support the vote on the amendment. Moderates likely still vote for the main House reform bill to be voted on. But some media say some GOP moderates have not ruled out signing onto a Democratic-led discharge petition to force a vote on a three-year extension. But other media report that this is unlikely. Four GOPers would be needed to hit 218 to

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