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2026 Medicare Advantage Contraction: Installment 1

I am beginning a Medicare Advantage contraction counter as we move toward open enrollment and 2026 Given the ongoing financial challenges for insurers in general but specifically in Medicare Advantage (MA), we have already seen announcements of many high-profile contractions for 2026. In my August 14 blog here ( https://www.healthcarelabyrinth.com/what-is-in-store-for- medicare-advantage-in-2026/ ), I tell you all about the challenges and my prediction that contraction will be heavy but not what it was in 2025. I am already thinking my prediction could be wrong here given the recent announcements. We could in fact see contraction that comes close, rivals, or even exceeds what we saw in 2025. Thus, periodically I will write a quick blog – here is installment 1 – tracking the announced MA contractions for 2026. 2025 contraction overall To refresh your memory on what happened in 2025, here are some important statistics for an alarming downsizing by plans:

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September 5, 2025

Mercer Survey Confirms Employer Healthcare Struggles A new survey and study from consulting firm Mercer adds to the growing worry about the status of employer coverage. It says employers are likely to see healthcare costs increase significantly next year. Mercer polled more than 1,700 employers and found that total health benefit costs per employee are expected to rise by an average of 6.5% in 2026 after cost management and 9% before such measures. This 9% gross trend is consistent with the 8% to 9% seen in other studies and surveys. These trends are the highest in a decade. And this will mean the fourth-straight year of increased spending growth following a decade of more moderate cost hikes. Reasons for the major trends are the following: Mercer says 56% of employers intend to take cost-cutting measures for 2026, up from 48% in 2025. Deductibles and other cost-sharing will be increased. Mercer

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September 4, 2025

2026 MA Pullback Starts A number of high profile exits from Medicare Advantage (MA) and standalone Part D (PDP) were announced today. Elevance Health announced it will cut some MA plans and fully exit the PDP program. The PDP exit is not surprising but sends a message that the program is in trouble after some political yet bad policy changes made by Democrats to Part D cost-sharing the Inflation Reduction Act. The changes have destabilized an already fragile program. Elevance has 400,000 PDP members and is the sixth-largest plan in PDP. Given its continuing financial woes, Elevance, too, will eliminate unprofitable MA plans and says that will impact 150,000 individual and group MA members. But Elevance will continue its investments in Special Needs Plans (SNPs) in 2026, a huge trend in the industry. Elevance currently has 2.3 million MA enrollees. In an another announcement, due to financial issues, Minnesota-based UCare

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We Do Need Accountability: Not All Big Beautiful Bill Reductions Were Bad Policy

The GOP is not wrong about the need to bring accountability to government programs I have taken the position that most of the reductions to healthcare in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) were simply bad policy, but a number of you have asked me about my comments throughout the budget saga that some changes were reasonable. Others have asked why I have been mentioning the conservative Paragon Health Institute quite a bit. Paragon’s cadre of staff and fellows have populated key healthcare positions in the White House and healthcare agencies under Trump 45 and 47. Many of the reductions in the OBBBA came from Paragon positions. Let me answer the second question first. While I may not agree with everything Paragon trumpets, the think tank has rigorous policy discipline, and you have to respect that. They, too, are an influential player and I would be foolish not to

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September 3, 2025

New Analysis on MA Overpayment I have argued that a small subset of big plans have given all of Medicare Advantage (MA) a bad name by suspect or fraudulent risk adjustment practices that give them major overpayments. A number of studies have singled out this small group of major plans. Now, the Alliance of Community Health Plans (ACHP), a group that represents local and regional nonprofit payers, has come out with a study building on these earlier findings. ACHP says that UnitedHealthcare, the biggest MA insurer, collected up to $785 more per beneficiary than local nonprofit plans in 2023, costing Medicare more than $6 billion in excess payments that year. Humana, the second-biggest MA payer, collected $423 more per beneficiary that year than if those members were in ACHP member plans, costing Medicare an additional $4 billion. UnitedHealthcare’s average risk scores were 36.2% higher and Humana’s were 19.2% higher than

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September 2, 2025

Government Shutdown Looms Congress has returned to Washington and the GOP has no plan to keep the government running at the end of the month. Democrats are pushing the GOP to have a four-leaders meeting to discuss a consensus, but the House and Senate majorities are pushing other agendas right now. Democratic votes would be needed to keep the government going unless budget reconciliation was used again. That is a tall order if not impossible. The Senate GOP has floated a short-term spending patch to give more time to discuss FFY 2026 funding. But some conservatives in the House and Senate want a full-year extension at FFY 2025 spending levels with additional spending cuts. There is some bipartisan interest in negotiating a healthcare package before the end of the year. Senators are already discussing this. On the docket is the possibility of extending the Exchange premium subsidy enhancements, but conservatives

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No Surprises Act Reform Needed

While the No Surprises Act is helping Americans avoid surprise bills, it is fundamentally flawed and driving costs Since the No Surprises Act (NSA) was passed in late 2020 and went into effect beginning January 1, 2022, I have argued that the baseball-style arbitration process in the law is heavily stacked against health plans and favors providers. While the bill certainly stops Americans from receiving surprise bills, there is little question to me that the bill itself has and will continue to increase costs in the healthcare marketplace. A few new studies show the pros and cons of the bipartisan legislation. Let’s take a look at them. The pros As I note, the NSA has saved so many from exorbitant out-of-network (OON) bills. That is a good thing. While not every surprise bill has been stopped (e.g., ground ambulances), OON abusive billing for all emergency care and most surgery or procedures

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August 29, 2025

MA Controls Healthcare Growth For Enrollees While opponents of Medicare Advantage (MA) are on a campaign to strip MA of all sorts of revenue and bolster the future of the antiquated traditional fee-for-service (FFS) program, many studies show the value of MA from a cost and quality perspective. Now, the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research concludes that Californians enrolled in MA face slower growth in healthcare costs compared to those in FFS. Between 2013 and 2023, average monthly healthcare costs were $269 in counties with MA enrollment above 20%, compared with $481 in counties below 20%, or a 44% lower cost. Counties with higher MA enrollment saw an 11% increase in monthly healthcare costs over the decade (from $245 to $273), while counties with lower enrollment saw a 54% increase (from $361 to $557). #medicareadvantage #medicare https://www.beckerspayer.com/uncategorized/medicare-advantage-plans-keep-senior-care-costs-down-in-california-ucla MA Star Lawsuit Wrap-up This Modern Healthcare article tallies wins and losses

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August 28, 2025

More Suits On No Surprises Act UnitedHealthcare joins the ranks of Elevance Health and Aetna in suing prominent provider entities over the No Surprises Act. United is suing Radiology Partners and its Arizona-based affiliate, Sonoran Radiology, alleging the companies have been “abusing” the No Surprises Act’s independent dispute resolution process. They argue the radiology provider behemoth is “funneling millions into the pockets of its private-equity owners.” The lawsuit comes after a Health Affairs study that shows that providers overwhelmingly win disputes and are awarded extremely high payments. Another new study also shows that surprise bills have fallen under the act based on data from states that had some protections and those that did not before the national law took effect. The study also notes that the prediction that the process would lower prices and save has not materialized. The fact remains the law needs major reform, including requiring the qualifying

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My Biggest Worry … Erosion Of Coverage

Two big forces are coming together to erode coverage and increase the uninsured and underinsured It has been on my mind of late that two forces are coming together to further erode coverage in America. Surging utilization The first is surging utilization. Some of it can be explained – a return to normal post pandemic utilization, increased expensive drug introductions, aging and more. But some of it cannot. While healthcare actuaries anticipate a slowing of annual healthcare growth in a few years, I think we could be in a new era of even more robust annual spending. After all, right now we are seeing cost spikes of 6% to 9% a year. This is especially true for employer and commercial coverage. When utilization spikes, as much as employers try to protect employees, more costs are foisted upon workers or coverage evaporates. OBBBA’s impact The second is the coverage losses in

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