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What Is Happening To Big Healthcare And A Look At Its Future

Big healthcare right now looks rocky and it could get worse Just a few years ago, investors were absolutely enthralled with big healthcare – the massive companies that led vertical integration and seemed to be delivering strong margins and robust outlooks. But today, the investment community is concerned about a number of high-profile missteps from these big companies as well as external pressures that may force change. The big healthcare companies So, what companies are we talking about? Of course, I focus in on the big companies that have insurers as a major piece of their business – this includes UnitedHealth Group, Elevance Health, The Cigna Group, CVS Health, Centene Corp., Humana, and Molina Healthcare. Most of these entities have either large, concentrated insurance lines or are combination insurers and service providers. Let’s take them one at a time and discuss some of their missteps of late. UnitedHealth Group (UHG)

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October 18, 2024

CVS Ousts CEO Due To Financial Woes CVS Health ousted CEO Karen Lynch and replaced her with another insider, PBM President David Joyner. CVS also announced that investors can no longer rely on previous guidance from the company in terms of financial performance in 2024. CVS’ financial woes stem from its Aetna insurance business. It says its Aetna medical loss ratio (MLR) could hit 95.2% in Q3. This is stunnng given it has a substantial commercial line of business. CVS increased Medicare Advantage (MA) benefits phenomenally over the past few years and enrollment grew tremendously in 2024. This led to financial instability due to a number of inside and outside forces. I followed Lynch and met her a few times as Aetna’s leader. I found her an innovative and strong executive. She was dealt a bad hand since becoming CEO in February 2021. She had to weather the COVID pandemic,

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October 17, 2024

Democratic Report Argues Medicare Advantage Plans Use AI To Reduce Post Acute Care An incredibly biased report engineered by Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-CT, finds that the country’s three largest Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers – United Healthcare, Humana, and Aetna — obstruct seniors’ ability to receive post-acute care. It says the companies use technology (perhaps AI algorithms) to reject prior authorization claims. The report finds that the three insurers denied claims for post-acute care at “far higher” rates than for other types of care. Humana’s denials in post-acute care were 16 times higher than its overall denial rates. UnitedHealthcare and CVS denials were three times higher. I agree with the insurers that the report is sensationalistic. The report argues that at least two companies used AI and technology in denials. I do think a qualified professional should make the final clinical decision to deny a service. But what is lost on

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Growth From September To October In Medicare Advantage

Enrollment in Medicare Advantage continues to climb as we enter enrollment season I decided to continue my Medicare Advantage (MA) monthly enrollment blogs because of continuing month-over-month increases. The growth is tied to remaining strong benefit packages for 2024. Increases in MA enrollment still occur outside of the enrollment season given the aging of America and the ability of some populations, such as dual eligibles, to continue to make changes throughout the year. New enrollees see huge value in enrolling in MA over the traditional fee-for-service (FFS) program. This value difference will continue to drive growth in 2025. Open enrollment began October 15 for 2025 benefits. We normally would see enrollment pick up a great deal in November and December as some switch to their new plans early. But that is unclear because many plans will rein in benefits and geographies for contract year 2025 due to significantly deteriorating bottom lines.

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October 16, 2024

Biden Leaving His Mark On Medicare Advantage A very good article from Bridget Early in Modern Healthcare on the history of Medicare Advantage (MA) and how the Biden administration is leaving its mark on the program. I do take issue with the continual citing of what I think is a terribly biased overpayment figure (in this article $83 billion and I have seen even more ridiculous figures). But she has an extremely balanced approach and quotes both sides of the debate (some of the most qualified you can find) and reasonably speaks to the potential damage in the form of benefit reductions and geographic contraction that is occurring due to certain policies. It gives you a good feel for MA’s history and what is going on today. The article does a good job at inventorying changes, including health equity, risk adjustment changes, supplemental benefit changes, marketing reform, and prior authorization

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October 15, 2024

Mixed Signals On Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment The Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollment season officially kicked off today. While the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) finds that MA plans are largely stable, it does note that there are some reductions impacting consumers. Some beneficaries may be moved automatically to other plans by their current insurers. Others will have to make an affirmative choice. KFF promises to have a full review but appears to be putting the same spin on things as the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Others are saying that as many as 2 million will be displaced compared with the usual 100,000 each year. We covered some of the displacement yesterday for both MA and standalone Part D (PDP) plans. CNN correctly notes the displacement, citing an Oliver Wyman analysis that comes close to the 2 million number above. Oliver Wyman says more than 1.8 million MA members,

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October 14, 2024

Despite Star Problems, United And Humana Expected To Stay On Top Analysts say that United Healthcare and Humana will likely maintain their top positions in Medicare Advantage (MA), do well on enrollment, and weather current fiscal storms despite lower Star ratings, slimmer benefits, and financial headwinds. At the same time, analysts say lower Star scores are a real risk for the industry. Other large plans will do well as well. CVS Aetna has told investors it expects to shed about 10% of lives. Humana told investors it would lose about 5%. Large plans did very poorly in Star in 2025, with limited exceptions. Becker’s also ranks some of the largest MA plans by Star score for 2025. Jenn Kerfoot had a great LinkedIn post discussing the plight of 223,952 MA members facing plan terminations or service area reductions in areas with the highest levels of socioeconomic need. They will need

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Another Year Of Very Tough Medicare Advantage Star Measures Results

Note: This Healthcare Labyrinth blog was written and co-published in collaboration with Lilac Software, a new data analytics technology and insights firm I co-founded with Neetu Rajpal and Alex Schaefer. Lilac’s data scientists are hard at work analyzing all the Star Year 2025 results and recent trends. Check out Lilac Software’s website for additional research and analysis at https://lilacsoftware.com as well as Lilac’s LinkedIn page at https://www.linkedin.com/company/101172520/admin/dashboard/ . While the Medicare Advantage (MA) Star program has always made it difficult for plans to achieve and maintain high Star scores, the Star roller coaster ride has been much more profound over the past several years. We have seen three years now of falling results – the 2023, 2024, and 2025 Star Years. In some ways the 2023 year was a “return to normalcy” (with apologies to President Warren G. Harding) after banner Star ratings in the two years prior that were driven

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October 11, 2024

Winners And Losers From 2025 Medicare Advantage Star Year Announcement I reported yesterday that there was overall bad news for the Medicare Advantage (MA) industry when 2025 Star Years came out. The percentage of contracts obtaining a 4 Star or greater rating dropped to about 40%. Just 62% of all Medicare Advantage Part D (MA-PD) enrollees will be in a 4 Star or greater contract. These are big drops from even a sluggish 2024 Star year. There is always good news and bad news. Insurtechs Alignment Healthcare and Clover Health are celebrating their high-performing ratings. The big plans have a mix of stories: Humana, Elevance Health, and United Healthcare saw declines. Aetna and Cigna held steady. Centene’s performance was still sub par. Kaiser Permanente now has all of its members to 4 Star or greater. There were just seven 5-Star MA-PD contracts. There were 24 contracts that scored below 3

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October 10, 2024

Bad News On Medicare Advantage Star Ratings The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announced 2025 Star ratings and the news was not good. The percentage of contracts obtaining a 4 Star or greater rating dropped to about 40%. Just 62% of all Medicare Advantage Part D (MA-PD) enrollees will be in a 4 Star or greater plan. These are big drops from even a sluggish 2024 Star year. Humana saw the biggest drops among large national plans, with United and Elevance having some reductions and Centene continuing to score low. Aetna was roughly flat in terms of achievement. The poor Big Plan results drove the estimated enrollment in high-performing plans down. Big Plans have about three-quarters of the MA market. Humana and United are challenging their ratings. United has filed a lawsuit against CMS. My new company, Lilac Software, will have a blog and an infographic on all

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