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October 28, 2024

Coverage Expansion Saves Overall Healthcare Costs I absolutely loved this Health Affairs Forefront Blog arguing for an expansion of coverage and getting to true affordable universal access. It explicitly asks: “It is thus an ideal time to ask: Why aren’t we covering everyone and working to make care affordable for all?” The authors dissect well opponents’ positions that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) drove up costs and that trimmed down benefit packages are just fine. They beat down both arguments with good statistics. First, citing national healthcare expenditure data, they show that the ACA insurance expansions did not lead to accelerated cost growth. Second, they note that high-deductible health plans have negative impacts. Third, they argue that expansion might actually drive down cost growth more. They conclude that “we can have universal coverage, affordable cost sharing, and continued cost growth deceleration.” These points line up with my proposals for healthcare

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With Fraud Rampant, Federal Court Decision Could Kill “Qui Tam” Lawsuits

Striking major provision of qui tam lawsuits could hurt efforts to reduce fraud There is little doubt that fraud, waste, and abuse (FWA) is rampant in the American healthcare system. FWA ranges from gross inefficiency and poor use of healthcare resources all the way to outright illegal activity. In between there are all sorts of over-utilization and excessive testing. Outright fraud is up to 10% of our entire healthcare expenditures each year. FWA is likely up to 25%. With national healthcare expenditures expected to hit $5 trillion in 2024, up to $500 billion each year is fraud and $2.5 trillion is combined fraudulent, wasteful, or abusive spending. That is what makes the recent U.S. District Court of the Middle District of Florida decision on so-called qui tam lawsuits (I will call them qui tams from here on) very troubling. Federal Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle ruled last month that whistleblowers cannot file

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October 25, 2024

OIG Says CMS Does Not Ensure Part D Denies Part A Drugs A new audit report from the Department of Health and Human Services Office of Inspector General (HHS OIG) is calling on CMS to enact certain reforms to prevent Medicare Part D from making additional payments for drugs that are supposed to be covered under the Part A benefit. Certain drugs that might normally be under Part D are under Part A when someone is in hospice or in certain facilities. Medicare Advantage and Part D plans should proactively determine what part of Medicare should be charged. This has been a long-standing issue in the Medicare program. The audit looked at more than 2.5 million prescription drug events (PDE) for 2018 through 2020. It looked at anomalies in a sample. Extrapolating the results, it says Part D improperly paid up to $465.1 million. About $245.4 million of that amount

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October 24, 2024

HHS OIG Accuses MA Plans Of Inflating Risk Adjustment Submissions In a follow-up to an earlier review, the Health and Human Services’ Office of Inspector General (HHS OIG) concluded that Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers could be using health risk assessments (HRAs) to inflate risk adjustment payments through upcoding. The OIG says an estimated $7.5 billion in risk-adjusted payments tied to HRAs was received by MA insurers but the diagnoses substantiating them did not appear on separate encounters. Just 20 MA companies drove 80% of the questionable revenue. HHS OIG recommends a series of reforms. UnitedHealth Group received two-thirds of such risk-adjusted payments despite only managing 28% of MA enrollees. I have previously said MA plans should get ready for restrictions or elimination of HRAs and chart reviews in risk adjustment. However, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) did not concur with the HHS OIG findings, saying the study

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Election Is Close But Trump Has Electoral College Edge

A Trump victory would mean a sea change in healthcare policy The election is less than two weeks away. Given the huge sea change that could occur in healthcare policy, I thought it was time to devote a blog to my predictions on what might occur in the presidential, Senate and Houses races. I am a politics follower from way back. Early on in my career, I was a rightist youngster working for political action committees and political organizations. Later I was an editorial writer and political columnist prognosticating on state and local races. I also ran state legislative campaigns. As a governor’s appointee, I was smack in the middle of polls and political strategy. Predicting elections is a fool’s errand  What I learned through all of this is that predicting elections is very much a fool’s errand. It is never over until it is truly over and polls are

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October 23, 2024

Centene Next To Sue CMS Over Star Ratings Centene has become the latest big Medicare Advantage (MA) plan to sue the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) over its 2025 Star ratings. United and Humana have already done so. As with the other two plans, Centene argues with CMS’ call center measures. Its complaint raises three fundamental issues. First, relying on a handful of secret shopper calls in a given measure is unreasonable. Second, the 5-Star score requires 100% of TTY calls to be successfully completed and inclusion of even a single incorrect TTY call in the denominator has significant negative impact. Third, CMS mishandled and scored one TTY call to Centene’s detriment. Centene says the one call will cost the plan $73 million in revenue. In other news, brokers and agents are very worried about the impact of major reductions in the MA and standalone Part D (PDP)

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October 22, 2024

Cigna-Humana Possible Merger Explained With news that the Cigna-Humana merger could be back on, financial analysts are reviewing what it could mean for healthcare. The merger looks to be very complimentary, with very little overlap. A combined company would have a $121 billion market capitalization, still tiny compared with UnitedHealth Group’s $528 billion. On the insurance side, Cigna is a major commercial provider with 16.1 million members. Humana had fewer than 600,000 commercial customers and is closing this line down. Humana is the second-largest Medicare insurer with 8.8 million members (Medicare Advantage and standalone Part D PDP). It has about 1.2 million Medicaid lives. Cigna is selling its Medicare line to Health Care Service Corporation (HCSC, a big Midwest and South Blue). This began last year when the first talks were ongoing and continued after they broke down. Cigna CEO David Cordani felt too much would have to be invested

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October 21, 2024

Humana Sues CMS Over Star Scores In the broadest lawsuit yet over Star scores, Humana has sued the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) over its 2025 Star ratings. Lawsuits in 2024 from Scan and Elevance Health and in 2025 from United and Humana are relatively tame, arguing specific points of regulation or on a specific measure or measures. United has used the phrase “arbitrary and capricious” in detailing its lawsuit, but the Humana suit argues that in spades compared with United. Humana argues that the entire Star program is administered in an arbitrary and capricious manner in violation of the administrative procedures act. The argument has much greater significance now due to the Supreme Court striking down the so-called Chevron deference precedent, which gave agencies fairly wide-ranging authority to set regulations and interpret ambiguities. Of note, the suit has been filed in the Northern District of Texas before

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What Is Happening To Big Healthcare And A Look At Its Future

Big healthcare right now looks rocky and it could get worse Just a few years ago, investors were absolutely enthralled with big healthcare – the massive companies that led vertical integration and seemed to be delivering strong margins and robust outlooks. But today, the investment community is concerned about a number of high-profile missteps from these big companies as well as external pressures that may force change. The big healthcare companies So, what companies are we talking about? Of course, I focus in on the big companies that have insurers as a major piece of their business – this includes UnitedHealth Group, Elevance Health, The Cigna Group, CVS Health, Centene Corp., Humana, and Molina Healthcare. Most of these entities have either large, concentrated insurance lines or are combination insurers and service providers. Let’s take them one at a time and discuss some of their missteps of late. UnitedHealth Group (UHG)

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October 18, 2024

CVS Ousts CEO Due To Financial Woes CVS Health ousted CEO Karen Lynch and replaced her with another insider, PBM President David Joyner. CVS also announced that investors can no longer rely on previous guidance from the company in terms of financial performance in 2024. CVS’ financial woes stem from its Aetna insurance business. It says its Aetna medical loss ratio (MLR) could hit 95.2% in Q3. This is stunnng given it has a substantial commercial line of business. CVS increased Medicare Advantage (MA) benefits phenomenally over the past few years and enrollment grew tremendously in 2024. This led to financial instability due to a number of inside and outside forces. I followed Lynch and met her a few times as Aetna’s leader. I found her an innovative and strong executive. She was dealt a bad hand since becoming CEO in February 2021. She had to weather the COVID pandemic,

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