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October 9, 2025

Star Ratings Stable For SY 2026 Despite the government shutdown, the Star Year 2026 Ratings data tables are out. The three-year downturn in Star ratings appears to have ended, but SY 2026 was relatively flat to SY 2025. The average Star rating moved from 3.65 in SY 2025 to 3.66 in SY 2026. Of the 481 MA contracts rated in both SY 2025 and SY 2026, about 29% (140) of contracts saw ratings drop a half a Star or more, 26% (125) of contracts saw ratings increase a half a Star or more, and about 45% (216) stayed the same. The number of contracts at 4 and greater is about the same at just over 200. I suspect enrollment in these plans is about the same too, which was about 64% in 2025. But about a quarter of contracts at 4 or greater are different. As in the past there

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Drug Price Reform Has Passion From Trump But Prospects Appear Murky

(NOTE: Updated for AstraZeneca deal on 10/10/2025 and EMD Serono deal on 10/16.) Has Big Pharma hoodwinked the president and his advisors? As readers of this site know, I am a Republican but a big believer in drug price reform. Traditionally Republicans have curried favor with Big Brand Pharma – I say the GOP has been in brand drug makers’ hip pockets for years. Most GOP lawmakers shout from the rooftops that free market innovation will be stifled, disease will go untreated, and death will proliferate with drug price reform. Of course, the sensational arguments are taken directly from Big Pharma talking points. The drug market is not a free market and there are great examples of Republicans like Teddy Roosevelt standing up to cartels, monopolies, and oligopolies. Is there any doubt Big Pharma constitutes one of these anti-free-market entities? While I have some concerns about drug price reforms’ impacts,

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October 8, 2025

More Brand Drug Makers Scramble To Make Deals With Trump Big brand drug makers are scrambling to make deals with President Trump after Pfizer scored White House praise for making drug price concessions. Some of the other firms are upset with Pfizer as it increases pressure on them to cut deals as well. The White House says agreements could be announced as soon as this week, but the timing could slip. I have a blog coming tomorrow on drug price reform so far this year and why the brand drug makers are hoodwinking Trump and his advisors with these deals. See it at the blog tab tomorrow. In other news, a federal appeals court unanimously rejected a Novo Nordisk challenge to Medicare’s drug price negotiation program for 2025 negotiations. The ruling will allow the government to lump together products with the same ingredients for the purpose of choosing drugs for

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October 7, 2025

Medicare Part D Program For 2026 Analyzed Healthcare policy group KFF does its usual fabulous job analyzing Medicare Part D. In its new briefer, KFF sends a bit of a cautionary tale. While choice continues to exist in standalone Part D (PDP), the program continues to face financial headwinds and contract. KFF finds: A series of misguided cost-sharing reductions made by Democrats in the Inflation Reduction Act has created a difficult financial environment for Part D, causing plan exits and eroded benefits. The total number of stand-alone drug plans available in 2026 will fall for the third year in a row, as plan sponsors scale back their PDP offerings. But plans did their best to keep premiums low to avoid even greater concerns. Consumers likely will see higher costs within the benefit design. The big question is what will happen if and when the special premium stabilization program expires. Additional

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October 6, 2025

Government Shutdown Continues: Trump and Oz Signal Openness On ACA Credits Democrats again voted down a GOP government funding bill on a fifth attempt. The same three Democratic caucus members supported the measure, but it fell short of the 60 votes needed to pass in the Senate. Democrats are seeking to tag the government closure as a healthcare shutdown, arguing business cannot resume unless expiring Exchange premium enhancements are extended and other healthcare cuts are rescinded. Polls seem to show that Republicans are being blamed more for the shutdown than the Democrats, but the split is razor thin at 52-49. A healthcare policy group KFF poll also finds that more than three-quarters of Americans want the tax credit enhancements to continue. And about 3 in 4 people said they will blame Trump or the GOP if they end. Republicans and Democrats both appear to be unrelenting in their position, but

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2026 Medicare Advantage Contraction Counter: Installment 2

Contraction counter very active for 2026 With the publication of the landscape files, publicly traded company announcements, agent and broker insights, and the start of open enrollment on October 1, the magnitude of contraction in the Medicare Advantage (MA) industry is better known. While the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) puts its usual best spin on plan participation, choice, and premiums, it appears that contraction in terms of geographies, products, and benefits could be huge. Indeed, some are predicting the “forced moves” by enrollees due to terminations will hit the 2 million from 2025. 2025 contraction overall To refresh your memory of what happened in 2025, here are some important statistics for an alarming downsizing by plans: Big MA plan contraction in 2025 In terms of big MA plans themselves: 2026 contraction and some product growth The number of plans nationwide will remain about stable at 5,600 products,

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October 3, 2025

SNP Benefits Continue Growth As more becomes known about Medicare Advantage (MA) 2026 benefits, one trend continues. Special Needs Plan (SNP) investments remain strong. Despite notable MA contraction overall again, SNP benefit packages kept growing for 2026. SNP benefit offerings will grow overall by 33%. Regular MA plans will see a contraction of 9%, with Institutional or I-SNPs dropping 6%. Dual Eligible or D-SNPs will grow by 15% and Chronic Care or C-SNP packages by 42%. D-SNPs still dominate overall numbers in terms of benefit packages and enrollment. Investments in C-SNPs are occurring as a hedge. C-SNPs carry increased regulatory requirements, but not to the extent of D-SNPs, which are undergoing major integration between the Medicare and Medicaid programs. The growth also is occurring because the ability to have too many SNP “look-alikes” was reined in through a recent rule. There are a few plans behind this major growth in

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October 2, 2025

Humana Reports No Progress On Dismal Star Ratings A shocker announcement today. Humana, the second largest Medicare Advantage (MA) health plan, told regulators and investors that its Star ratings remained largely steady and did not recover from a catastrophic low. What’s more, based on how enrollment looks to pan out in 2026, its percentage of members in 4 Star or greater plans will drop from 25% in 2025 to 20% in 2026. Historically, Humana has been a high performer. In 2024, it had 94% of members in 4 Star or greater plans. The collapse of Star ratings for Humana in 2025 and now 2026 has cost billions in annual revenue. A good share of the drop in 2025 resulted from a lower Star rating in a nationwide contract with millions of enrollees. Humana was said to be addressing the concentration of enrollees in that one contract but apparently the time

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PwC Highlights The AI-Driven and Digital Changes That Will Take Hold In Healthcare

Is American healthcare headed for a huge transformation? PwC things so. NOTE: This blog is published in collaboration with Lilac Software. Learn more at https://lilacsoftware.com . Financial and management consultant PwC came out with a blockbuster report that predicts major changes in how healthcare will be delivered over the next decade. While I believe healthcare reform is critical to save our system, it is fair to say that the technological changes too will critically remake how care is delivered. The report is titled: “From breaking point to breakthrough: the $1 trillion opportunity to reinvent healthcare.” PwC says healthcare is in the process of a monumental shift. Artificial-intelligence-driven, consumer-centric healthcare services will emerge. This will simplify care models, lower costs, and increase quality. PwC’s main prediction is that $1 trillion of national healthcare spending could go to digital-first, personalized medical care by 2035. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ Office

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October 1, 2025

Glimpse At MA Plan Contraction for 2026 The Medicare Plan Finder for Medicare plans went live today and gave us a glimpse of the plan contractions in Medicare Advantage (MA) for 2026. The recent release of the so-called landscape files did so as well. The number of plans nationwide remained about stable at 5,600 products, but this is a net of expansions and contractions. Major health plans contracted in a number of areas and especially contracted the Preferred Provider Organization (PPO) product. An ATI Advisory analysis says individual MA plans will decrease 9% compared with 2025. Individual excludes Special Needs Plans (SNPs) and employer group MA. Individual Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) and SNPs grew.  Chronic Care SNPs are up 42% from 2025. United county penetration is down 4% nationally, while Humana is down about 6.8% and Aetna down 4.4%. Both Elevance Health and Centene are expanding coverage, up 2.7% and

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