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More news on the contraction in MA due to the ongoing financial woes On October 6, I ran my second installment on 2026 Medicare Advantage (MA) contraction. As more information becomes public, we have learned a bit more on the scope and depth of MA and standalone Part D (PDP) plans’ pullback in benefits, products, and footprints. So, a quick update on some new findings. How many MA members will be forced to change plans during open enrollment? Deft Research says up to 5% of current MA members, or about 1.8 million people, will need to change plans because their plan was terminated. As I suspected, the impact of the contraction would again be high. Up to 2 million had to do so in 2025. So 2026, is just short of 2025. This represents two years in a row of major displacement for enrollees. Regional players filling the void? While

Moderates on both sides of the aisle are quietly talking about ways to keep the ehancements at least for some time Despite what appears to be a government shutdown hurtling forward with little end in sight, a number of articles suggest that a compromise could be in the making to extend the enhanced premium subsidies in the Exchanges. Now, nothing is by any means certain for several reasons, but progress here or a deal itself could potentially be a basis for passing a bill to reopen government. Let’s give you some background and dive into the players, politics, and possibilities. The types of subsidies As part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010, the state and federal Exchanges were set up to offer subsidized and unsubsidized coverage in the newly formed Marketplaces for those without consistent access to healthcare or who may need temporary access. For lower-income and some

Plans may be delighted with the recent court ruling striking the RADV rule, but they should not cheer for too long. A federal court has vacated the 2023 Medicare Advantage (MA) Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) audit rule finalized during the Biden years. The court nullified the entire rule not just portions of it. The decision was not unexpected. The Biden administration included so many far-fetched and indefensible provisions. At the same time, it is a bit of a shocker as it throws the Trump administration’s plans for a 100% RADV audit commitment into great flux. That certainly raises uncertainty for plans. Background After years of operating RADV audits through both the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and the Health and Human Services’ (HHS) Office of Inspector General (OIG) without rule-making authority, the Biden administration finally proposed a RADV rule under which recoupments in the MA risk adjustment

(NOTE: This blog was co-published with Lilac Software. Learn more at https://lilacsoftware.com ) Plans’ Star rating stabilized a bit but challenges remain Last year at this time, the Medicare Advantage (MA) Star news for Star Year (SY) 2025 was a third drop in a row in Star performance from the peak in SY 2022. Here we are one year later and the picture is mixed. The three-year downturn in Star ratings appears to have ended, but SY 2026 was relatively flat to SY 2025. There has been little progress overall. While we see some signs of stability, it is fair to say that MA Star performance is still in the doldrums and the industry continues to have some of the lowest ratings ever. One key fact showing continued challenges for plans with Stars Star ratings overall remain at very low levels. Of the 481 MA contracts rated in both SY

(NOTE: Updated for AstraZeneca deal on 10/10/2025 and EMD Serono deal on 10/16.) Has Big Pharma hoodwinked the president and his advisors? As readers of this site know, I am a Republican but a big believer in drug price reform. Traditionally Republicans have curried favor with Big Brand Pharma – I say the GOP has been in brand drug makers’ hip pockets for years. Most GOP lawmakers shout from the rooftops that free market innovation will be stifled, disease will go untreated, and death will proliferate with drug price reform. Of course, the sensational arguments are taken directly from Big Pharma talking points. The drug market is not a free market and there are great examples of Republicans like Teddy Roosevelt standing up to cartels, monopolies, and oligopolies. Is there any doubt Big Pharma constitutes one of these anti-free-market entities? While I have some concerns about drug price reforms’ impacts,

Contraction counter very active for 2026 With the publication of the landscape files, publicly traded company announcements, agent and broker insights, and the start of open enrollment on October 1, the magnitude of contraction in the Medicare Advantage (MA) industry is better known. While the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) puts its usual best spin on plan participation, choice, and premiums, it appears that contraction in terms of geographies, products, and benefits could be huge. Indeed, some are predicting the “forced moves” by enrollees due to terminations will hit the 2 million from 2025. 2025 contraction overall To refresh your memory of what happened in 2025, here are some important statistics for an alarming downsizing by plans: Big MA plan contraction in 2025 In terms of big MA plans themselves: 2026 contraction and some product growth The number of plans nationwide will remain about stable at 5,600 products,

Is American healthcare headed for a huge transformation? PwC things so. NOTE: This blog is published in collaboration with Lilac Software. Learn more at https://lilacsoftware.com . Financial and management consultant PwC came out with a blockbuster report that predicts major changes in how healthcare will be delivered over the next decade. While I believe healthcare reform is critical to save our system, it is fair to say that the technological changes too will critically remake how care is delivered. The report is titled: “From breaking point to breakthrough: the $1 trillion opportunity to reinvent healthcare.” PwC says healthcare is in the process of a monumental shift. Artificial-intelligence-driven, consumer-centric healthcare services will emerge. This will simplify care models, lower costs, and increase quality. PwC’s main prediction is that $1 trillion of national healthcare spending could go to digital-first, personalized medical care by 2035. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ Office

Program audits will get tougher and tougher for Special Needs Plans In my last blog on 9/25/2025 here ( https://www.healthcarelabyrinth.com/the-meteoric-growth-of-special-needs-plans-snps/ ) I discussed the meteoric rise in Special Needs Plan (SNP) growth, why plans are investing here, and why executives have to be watching out for pitfalls.  One of them clearly is the growing compliance, regulatory, and program audit environment. I promised an overview of the maturing SNP program audit regulatory environment. A few quick points: Emerging trends: Back some time ago, CMS concentrated on whether a health risk assessment (HRA) was complete and a care plan issued. These two tests were very much the focus of CMS’ regulatory and audit tests. But CMS has now gone far beyond these simple tests. That is not to say these are not important – they are. A plan can miserably fail and audit without them. But these have now become table stakes

Plans are investing in SNPs and executives need to prepare for scrutiny Notwithstanding the huge meltdown in health insurance generally and Medicare Advantage (MA) specifically, MA plans are busy making new investments in the program, prognosticating that investments in Special Needs Plans (SNPs) will pay huge dividends. Back in March of this year, I wrote a detailed blog on everything SNP – from what they are, the types, history, growth, regulation, and more. Go here to read the details, which are still very relevant: https://www.healthcarelabyrinth.com/special-needs-plans-snp-growth-a-relative-bright-spot-for-medicare-advantage-ma/ . In this blog, I am updating some recent growth trends and I will further elaborate about why plans are investing here and some of the rising risks to consider. On Monday, I plan to do a deep dive into current audit and regulatory trends in SNPs to help plans and executives prepare for program audits. A growth update Plans have been investing heavily in

MA continues plugging along despite financial woes A quick blog to tell you about enrollment growth in Medicare Advantage (MA) from August 2025 to September 2025. MA growth slowed down from 2024 to 2025 because of the financial woes of the MA industry. But the rolls are still growing due to aging and the popularity and value of MA compared with the archaic traditional Medicare (fee-for-service) program. What do the latest statistics show? Growth from January 2024 to February 2025 was 4.39% or 1.468 million. (I used February 2025 because of issues with the January 2025 statistics). Enrollment in MA reached 34.941M in February 2025. In September 2025, it reached 35.579M. MA enrollment grew about 51K from August to September and about 637K from February to September. Growth in September was down from 91K in August. How did Big MA do? From January 2024 to February 2025, Big Plan MA