republicans

The Budget Rollercoaster: Reconciliation Advances But Big Debate Looms In Senate

The House GOP has threaded the needle – so far – on budget reconciliation The House threaded the needle and passed the budget reconciliation bill on a tight 215 to 214 vote Thursday morning, meeting a self-imposed objective by the House GOP leadership of before the Memorial Day weekend. But based on what has occurred and the major fissures that have erupted, quick passage of a final congressional bill is some time off. This week’s developments — Trump intervenes After conservatives initially tanked the bill in the Budget Committee on Friday and voted present on Sunday to advance the bill, President Trump visited the House GOP caucus on Tuesday to urge holdouts to support the package. Trump pushed moderate Republicans from blue states to give up their fight over additional SALT deduction concessions, while warning conservative members not to “f‑‑‑ with Medicaid” as some lawmakers eyed further changes to the

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May 21, 2025

House Passes Reconciliation Bill; On To An Uncertain Fate In Senate (UPDATED 5/22 AM) The House threaded the needle and passed the budget reconciliation bill on a tight 215-to-214 vote. Two Republicans voted against the bill, and one voted present to get the bill to pass. The vote was a result of a marathon session and backroom arm-twisting by President Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and other House GOP leaders. President Trump met with the caucus this week and laid down the law, telling moderates to drop their SALT demands (they did to some degree) and conservatives not to “f—” with Medicaid. The House leaders thread the needle by a mix of further concessions and appealing to party unity. The conservatives wanted additional Medicaid structural changes and accelerated reductions. They were conceded acceleration of work requirements from 2029 to essentially 2027. It is likely impossible for states to do so

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May 20, 2025

HHS Explains MFN Drug Price Approach The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) issued guidance regarding President Donald Trump’s recent executive order regarding adopting most favored nation (MFN) drug pricing throughout the country. If Big Pharma brand drug makers were not worried before, they should be now. An HHS press release laid out expectations for how drug makers will engage with the order. It notes all brand products that do not currently have generic or biosimilar competition across all markets (lines of business) are covered. It says drug companies must “commit to aligning” their U.S. prices with “the lowest price of a set of economic peer countries.” The peer group is the so-called rich nations as represented by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries and that have a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of at least 60% of the U.S. GDP. Big Pharma came out swinging,

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May 19, 2025

House Budget Committee Advances Reconciliation Bill After a high-profile defeat Friday, the House Budget Committee advanced the budget reconciliation bill with $625 billion in Medicaid reductions Sunday night. Four House Freedom conservatives in the GOP caucus voted present to advance the bill, apparently with commitments that changes will be made to the bill. A prominent conservative, Chip Roy, said work requirements would be accelerated. He also mentioned the need for steeper provider tax cuts and a rollback of the enhanced reimbursement for the Medicaid expansion. If all House moderates are on the bill now (a big if), they would likely jump off with steeper Medicaid cuts. Providers and doctors are sounding the alarm on coverage losses, lower state dollars, administrative costs, and red tape. Health policy group KFF published two briefs: one on the 15 states that would be impacted with lower reimbursement if they maintain undocumented immigrants and the

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April to May 2025 Medicare Advantage Enrollment

Medicare Advantage (MA) growth continues but with continuing softness in Big MA A quick blog to tell you about enrollment growth in Medicare Advantage (MA) from April 2025 to May 2025. MA growth slowed down from 2024 to 2025 because of the financial woes of the MA industry. But the rolls are still growing due to aging and the popularity and value of MA compared with the archaic traditional Medicare (fee-for-service) program. What do the latest statistics show? Growth from January 2024 to February 2025 was 4.39% or 1.468 million. (I used February 2025 because of issues with the January 2025 statistics). Enrollment in MA reached 34.941M in February 2025. In May 2025, it reached 35.242M. MA enrollment grew about 80K from April to May and about 301K from February to May. How did Big MA do? From January 2024 to February 2025, Big MA (big national plans) enrollment performed

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May 16, 2025

Conservative Rebellion On Budget Bill Conservative House members on the Budget Committee sent shock waves through the Capitol Friday when they stopped advancement of the budget reconciliation bill over a lack of sufficient spending cuts. In some ways, the meltdown could be predicted, but the fact that the five conservatives defied the wishes of the president and leaders showed just how fragile the GOP’s hold on Congress is. Speaker Mike Johnson already had a huge issue on his hands when it came to moderates from Blue states asking to increase state and local tax reductions. Now, he has the conservatives off the bill, which could then spur more moderate concern if cuts go deeper. Principally, the conservatives want work requirements to be imposed much earlier than 2029 and to see tighter eligibility in Medicaid. They complain that cuts are backloaded and spending front-loaded. The bill will be discussed behind the

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May 15, 2025

Budget Reconciliation Saga House Freedom Caucus members could sink the budget reconciliation bill coming out of the Budget Committee for lack of enough reductions and weak Medicaid policy changes. Conservatives are pushing for an acceleration of work requirements from the current plan targeted for 2029. At the same time, moderates are upset with the scope of Medicaid reductions. House Speaker Mike Johnson also said that the proposed bill would be changed to enhance state and local tax deductions as well as increase Medicaid savings. But the latter could further upset moderates. The current reductions fall disproportionately on states, which will have to make up hundreds of millions of reimbursement reductions, as well as enrollees, who could lose coverage. Another controversy is ambiguous language regarding provider taxes. While new provider taxes are barred, it is unclear how long existing taxes would be grandfathered or whether renewing current provider taxes would be

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Trump Goes All In On Drug Price Reform

I often disagree with Donald Trump on policy, but not on his drug price reform proposals I am a Republican, but Donald Trump and I seemingly agree on very few things these days. But I am here to tell you that Donald Trump is exactly right on drug prices and his recent executive orders could be seminal events for drug price reform and healthcare reform more broadly in America. Over the past many months, I have been writing about what I think are Trump’s populist credentials to be a leading reformer on drug pricing. I predicted that he would be bold. And by any measure, he has been. In my April 21 blog, I praised Trump for his initial executive order on drug price reform. It was clearly well thought out and comprehensive. It showed a sophisticated and nuanced understanding of how drug markets work — or don’t work if

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May 14, 2025

Medicaid Cuts Advance In House After a marathon overnight hearing where lawmakers literally fell asleep in their chairs, the House Energy & Commerce Committee advanced on a party-line vote deep Medicaid spending reductions in the budget reconciliation process. The cuts amount to $624 billion in Medicaid over 10 years. New provider tax bans, cost-sharing for certain populations, and work requirements are some of the largest reductions. Democrats proposed to tackle Medicare Advantage (MA) overpayments instead. They, too, wanted to use savings from President Trump’s recent executive order to reduce drug pricing. While the reductions advanced, a deep divide is quickly emerging. Moderates and conservatives are still at odds in the House. Conservatives claimed that the reductions are not deep enough, while many moderates could be off the bill due to the existing Medicaid cuts. Some moderates and pragmatic conservatives in the Senate are also concerned about the Medicaid cuts. In

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May 13, 2025

Providers React To Medicaid Cuts Protests broke out at the Capitol and providers and advocates reacted to Medicaid reductions in a draft framework of the budget reconciliation bill. Provider taxes are especially getting attention. The bill proposes to freeze all new provider taxes, while a proposed administration rule would rein in what the administration calls provider-tax waivers that violate the spirit of the law. Limits on state directed payments, often funded by provider taxes, would occur as well in the reconciliation bill. In other news, the Trump administration says it plans on revisiting the mental health parity rule. In addition, doctors appear to be on the verge of some relief in terms of a Medicare physician rate fix. While no relief will be granted in 2025, in 2026 rates would increase by about 2.25% and future increases would be linked to the Medicare Economic Index, which generally rises faster than

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