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National Healthcare Expenditure Data Issued for 2024: What Does It All Mean?

2024 saw another major surge in healthcare spending coming out of the COVID pandemic One of my Christmas traditions is to write about the release of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Actuary’s National Healthcare Expenditure Data (NHED) for a given calendar year. This usually is released in the middle of December each year for the prior year, but alas the government shutdown meant the data were published in January. It literally takes CMS about a year to capture, calculate, and categorize all the data for a year given the size and labyrinthine complexity of our healthcare system. Each year as well, usually in the first half of June, the CMS Actuary updates healthcare spending projections for ten outyears. Why is this so important? First, it is the main comprehensive source of data for calculating the history and future of healthcare spending. Most other studies rely in some

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January 23, 2026

CareFirst Sues on Star Ratings The now annual tradition of a Medicare Advantage (MA) plan suing over Star ratings continues. CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield is suing the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) over its 2026 Star Ratings, alleging improper calculations cost the insurer an estimated $32 million in quality bonus payments. The plan says CMS departed from its own guidance when it used corrected patient safety data released after the close of the plan preview period to calculate Star Ratings. CareFirst says it received a 3.5-star rating instead of 4 Stars for a contract with about 30,000 enrollees. CareFirst says its Drug Plan Quality Improvement Measure for the contract was impacted by CMS contractor Acumen updating data after the close of the Plan Preview period. CMS has a hard rule that issues must be raised by plans before or during Plan Preview 1 and CareFirst says that CMS should

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January 22, 2026

Health Plan CEOs Grilled On Affordability It was a bipartisan bashing of health plan CEOs on Capitol Hill today as both parties sought to protect themselves from healthcare affordability fallout. While the GOP was more sympathetic to the plan executives, they engaged in a great deal of attacks as well. The issues covered included the following: In other news, the House passed its final four appropriations bills and they now go to the Senate. This needs to happen soon to avoid a partial shutdown. Further, lawmakers accused CVS Health of violating antitrust laws by restricting independent pharmacies from working with digital pharmacy competitors to protect its market position. Last, Cigna said its plan to end drug rebates will reduce earnings by $500 million to $600 million. Additional articles: https://www.modernhealthcare.com/politics-regulation/mh-health-insurance-ceo-hearings-live-updates/ and https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-21/cvs-health-may-have-violated-antitrust-laws-republican-lawmakers-say and https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payers/insurance-ceos-set-back-back-congressional-hearings-affordability and https://www.beckerspayer.com/payer/house-committee-accuses-cvs-of-impeding-pharmacy-competition/ and https://www.modernhealthcare.com/insurance/mh-cigna-earnings-drug-rebates/ and https://www.beckerspayer.com/payer/vertical-integration-is-destroying-peoples-ability-to-access-care-payer-ceos-face-bipartisan-congressional-grilling/ and https://www.beckerspayer.com/payer/cvs-health-cuts-prior-authorizations-expands-rebate-sharing/ and https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5701980-house-government-funding-bills/ and https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/house-budget-committee-healthcare-affordability-consolidation/810149/ (Some articles may require a

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Will MFN Drug Pricing Become A Reality in America?

Trump delivers on MFN with far-reaching Medicare and Medicaid models President Donald Trump issued an executive order early on in Trump 47 that set the course for most-favored-nation (MFN) pricing for drugs in America. He tried to do this in a small way in Trump 45, but the Biden administration pulled back on it. In part, it was not well thought out, and it came out at the tail end of his first administration. Since the executive order, Trump notched drug price deals with 16 of the 17 top brand drug makers. The drug makers said they would grant MFN pricing in Medicaid for all drugs and would introduce new drugs at MFN prices in America. He also got lower self-pay prices. Now, with an announcement just before Christmas, he has delivered further on his promise by announcing three new models that officially move toward MFN pricing in America. The

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January 21, 2026

UHG To Give Profits Back To Exchange Enrollees In an effort to forestall charges against it over healthcare affordability, UnitedHealth Group announced today that it plans to give profits from its Exchange plans back to customers in 2026. Several top executives from the biggest plans will appear before two House committees Thursday as the GOP seeks to insulate itself from the affordability crisis. UnitedHealthcare offers plans on the exchanges in 30 states, and it expanded its service area in 11 of those regions. It is unknown how much money that is or if United will make a profit. Additional articles: https://www.modernhealthcare.com/insurance/mh-unitedhealth-aca-rebates-congress/ and https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payers/unitedhealth-ceo-hemsley-says-insurer-will-rebate-aca-profits-consumers and https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/unitedhealth-to-return-aca-profits-to-customers-hemsley/810183/ and https://www.modernhealthcare.com/politics-regulation/mh-stephen-hemsley-david-joyner-congress/ (Some articles may require a subscription.) #unitedthealthcare #healthplans #congress #affordability #exchanges https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5699770-unitedhealth-group-affordable-care-act-profits Cigna May Settle FTC Insulin Suit Cigna may settle the administrative Federal Trade Commission (FTC) case over allegations it artificially raised insulin prices. The FTC said it suspended the case to

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January 20, 2026

Bipartisan Lawmakers Announce Deal To Keep Government Open A bipartisan deal was announced that would keep the federal government open for the rest of federal fiscal 2026 (to Septemeber 30) and enact long-sought healthcare changes. Given the bipartisan and bicameral nature of the deal, the bill likely can be passed by the end of July when the government would otherwise partially shut down. But some fear conservatives in each chamber could oppose the deal on budgetary grounds. Medicare telehealth coverage would be extended for two years. The Medicare hospital-at-home program would be extended for five years. The bill would also move further toward site-neutral payments in Medicare. Medicare Advantage (MA) plans would be required to maintain accurate provider lists and patients who visit providers erroneously due to bad data would only have to pay in-network rates. The bill doesn’t include limits on MA prior authorization. The bill also boosts pay to physicians participating in

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Trump’s “Great Healthcare Plan” Falls Short

Tump’s TikTok video is more hype than serious reform President Donald Trump made a major healthcare announcement last week — calling his reform the “The Great Healthcare Plan.” The plan was more of a skeletal framework, but themes do tie to policy priorities in either the House or Senate GOP caucuses, which could pass in 2026. What Trump announced would need congressional action and likely will be included in a second reconciliation bill being prepared by the GOP caucuses. What are the main tenets of the president’s proposal? Other proposals How would all this get done? The GOP caucuses would likely include some or all of the recommendations by Trump in a second reconciliation bill. The reconciliation process does not need 60 votes in the Senate but there are some limits on what can and cannot be included in such measures. The House (via the Republican Study Committee, the largest

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January 16, 2026

Exchange Compromise Appears To Be Fizzling Prospects for a compromise bill in the Senate on an enhanced Exchange subsidy extension compromise appear to be fizzling. I have said the chance is at best 50-50 and now those odds are even dwindling. The negotiating group has failed to reach agreement on two of the biggest sticking points – allowing some or all of the dollars to move to health savings accounts (HSAs) and stricter “Hyde amendment” abortion restriction language. Meanwhile, some Democrats are also arguing the minimum premium of $5 or $10 per family per month is unaffordable for those who are low income. The GOP argues zero premiums have led to fraudulent enrollment. On the home front, states and plans are waiting to see what the fallout of an average 26% premium hike and 114% hike for subsidized individuals will mean. The latest statistics say that enrollment is only down

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January 15, 2026

Trump’s “Great Healthcare Plan” President Donald Trump made a major healthcare announcement today, calling his reform framework “The Great Healthcare Plan.” But the announcement provided few details and leaves much of the work to Congress. GOP lawmakers do appear to be crafting ideas to limit exposure on healthcare unaffordability, but extending the expired enhanced subsidies may not be part of the deal. Here is the very skeletal outline of the president’s proposals: President Trump deserves a great deal of credit on drug price reform, but otherwise the deal is not well thought out and does not tackle the true reason for a lack of affordability – price in the market. I will give more details in a blog soon. Additional articles: https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/regulatory/trump-takes-aim-insurance-industry-unveiling-great-healthcare-plan and https://www.beckerspayer.com/policy-updates/trump-pitches-healthcare-policy-outline-aimed-at-lowering-costs-3-takeaways/ and https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/15/politics/trump-health-care-plan and https://apnews.com/article/trump-health-care-insurance-congress-savings-accounts-b7b4caae9ad14fda4646c42d3858202b and https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/01/15/trump-congress-aca-subsidies-health-care.html and https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2026/01/president-trump-unveils-the-great-healthcare-plan-to-lower-costs-and-deliver-money-directly-to-the-people/ and https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/The-Great-Healthcare-Plan.pdf and https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5691065-trump-health-care-affordability-plan/ and https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/trump-great-healthcare-plan-affordability-aca/809759/ and https://www.medpagetoday.com/publichealthpolicy/healthpolicy/119456 (Some articles may require a subscription.) #healthcare #healthcarereform https://www.modernhealthcare.com/politics-regulation/mh-trump-great-healthcare-plan-drugs-premiums MedPAC

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Shooting Stars: The Impact Of Regulatory Changes And What MA Plans Can Do

Note: This blog is published in partnership with Lilac Software. Learn more about Lilac’s Stars solutions at the link at the end of the blog. Seismic changes in Star ratings means MA plans need strategic planning and investments. Medicare Advantage (MA) plans continue to worry about the impacts of the proposed Stars regulatory changes and what they will mean to Star ratings and benefits in the future. This is occurring as the industry as a whole continues to struggle financially and has had to retrench from a geography, product, and benefit perspective. The major investment that has occurred has been in Special Needs Plans (SNPs) the past two years, but some of the regulatory changes do not bode well for Stars for plans that will have SNP lives or a high concentration of dual eligibles. Refresher on proposed changes Major measure realignment: Beginning primarily in Measure Year (MY) 2027 or

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