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February to March 2025 Medicare Advantage Enrollment

February to March enrollment grows after dismal enrollment season In a February 27 blog, I detailed the growth in Medicare Advantage (MA) from January 2024 to February 2025 after a long delay from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) in posting the annual data. As I noted, the January enrollment statistics were up for a short time only to be taken down due to errors and presumably the transition in the White House. As I explained in the blog, the final January data still did not seem quite right, so I compared January 2024 to February 2025 instead. To summarize, the statistics show some of the financial struggles the industry continues to have. Growth is way down compared with prior years in the 2020s due to major geographic contractions as well as plan benefit reductions by major MA players. As the chart below shows, January 2024 to February

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March 19, 2025

Cigna Closes $3.3 Billion Deal To Sell MA Business Cigna officially closed its $3.3 billion sale of its Medicare line of business to Health Care Service Corporation (HCSC). The deal includes Medicare Advantage (MA) lives, Medicare Part D lives, its Medicare supplement business, and its CareAllies physician ownership. HCSC jumps to 950,000 members from about 240,000 members. Cigna actually grew MA from about 600,000 to 700,000 in the past year. Cigna CEO David Cordani was known to be frustrated with the lack of profitability in the MA line and wants to focus on services entity Evernorth and the commercial insurance line. In other news, United’s Optum Rx pharmacy benefits manager (PBM) said it would eliminate up to 25% of reauthorizations, initially focusing on 80 drugs. This amounts to 10% of overall prior authorizations. Additional articles: https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payers/cigna-closes-33b-sale-medicare-plans-hcsc and https://www.beckerspayer.com/m-and-a/cigna-hcsc-close-3-3b-medicare-advantage-sale/ and https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payers/optum-rx-reduce-reauthorizations-80-drugs and https://www.modernhealthcare.com/insurance/optumrx-drug-prior-authorization and https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/optum-rx-eliminate-prior-authorizations/742910/ and https://www.beckerspayer.com/payer/optum-rx-to-eliminate-prior-authorization-for-80-drugs/ (Some articles may require

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March 18, 2025

Trump Administration Sides With Hospitals Over Drug Makers in 340B Lawsuit The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has filed for summary judgment in its favor regarding lawsuits on the 340B program, siding with hospitals over drug makers. This is consistent with the Biden administration. While I am not a fan of brand drug makers, it is clear that hospitals and some other providers are abusing the intent of the program. Trump is on the wrong side of this policy issue. #340b #drugpricing #branddrugmakers https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/ai-and-machine-learning/rfk-jrs-hhs-picks-biden-admins-legal-fight-against-340b-rebates Rising Hospital Margins Hospitals across the nation logged a monthly median operating margin of 4.4%, up from 3.7% in December and 2.1% reported for all of 2024. #hospitals #margins https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/providers/hospitals-kick-2025-modest-operating-margin-gains-high-inpatient-revenue MedPAC Wants Medicare Provider Rate Hikes MedPAC, the congressional policy arm, has recommended tying the rate of physician and other health professionals’ payment increases in 2026 to the Medicare Economic Index minus 1 percentage

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March 17, 2025

Major Medicare Advantage Advocacy Group Launches Ad Campaign Better Medical Alliance (BMA), a prominent Medicare Advantage (MA) advocacy group, has launched a seven-figure digital ad campaign in an effort to avoid MA cuts and boost the proposed 2026 rate increase. Not counting risk score trends, MA rates saw a decline in 2024 and 2025. The Biden administration proposed just a 2.3% hike for 2026. This would lead to a third year of benefit cutbacks and geographic footprint reductions. The reductions have been caused by a new risk model that takes about 7% out of rates overall (it is being phased in over three years through 2026) as well as reductions in medical education funding. BMA notes that both Milliman and PwC estimated medical cost trends in MA increased by 8% from 2023 to 2024. The trend continues into 2025 with the return of utilization. Plans are also facing higher costs

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Lessons From Oz

Dr. Mehmet Oz’s confirmation hearing shows where the Trump administration is going on Medicare drug prices and Medicare Advantage (MA). The confirmation hearing last week of Dr. Mehmet Oz, who is slated to be administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is a lesson in changing political dynamics. It also tells us that sometimes the people most supportive of a given program may be most apt to reform it. Let’s break down what occurred at Oz’s confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Finance Committee. What is interesting is that many of the lawmakers on Finance are also members of the other healthcare committee of cognizance, the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) committee. We cannot touch all of the ground covered at the hearing in this blog, but let’s hit the top issues and why in most cases Oz’s responses run contrary to what we may

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March 14, 2025

Oz Dodges Medicaid Cuts But Signals Openness On MA Reductions Dr. Mehmet Oz, nominee to be administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), seems well placed to be confirmed. In a hearing, he dodged most questions on Medicaid cuts but signaled that he might favor reductions to Medicare Advantage (MA) overpayments. I have been saying this for some time now. Oz said he is in favor of work requirements for Medicaid and removing undocumented individuals. He did not defend the Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits set to expire in 2025. Oz appeared to agree with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-MA, and others at several points in the hearing that the MA program needs better reform and oversight, especially on payments. Even Sen. HELP Chairman Bill Cassidy, R-LA, appeared to agree and also raised denial of care by plans, on which Oz concurred. Oz also said

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March 13, 2025

MedPAC Repeats Dubious Overpayment Number In Report MedPAC, the congressional policy arm for Medicare, again has published a dubious overpayment number in a report to Congress. It says the federal government will spend $84 billion more in 2025 on Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollees than if they were enrolled in the traditional fee-for-service (FFS) program. This is about 20% more. This is slightly lower than MedPAC reported in 2024.  MedPAC says two factors accounting for the majority of overpayments to MA plans are risk score coding intensity and favorable selection. It says risk scores for MA enrollees will be around 16% higher in MA vs. FFS, which accounts for $40 billion. It says that $44 billion is favorable selection. Many MA proponents and I do not buy the favorable selection number or all of the risk score coding number. But I have admitted that some plans take advantage of risk adjustment and

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Health Equity Index Is Front And Center For The Medicare Advantage Star Program, But Will It Last?

The Health Equity Index (HEI) replaces the Reward Factor for Star Year 2027. Will the complex initiative last under Donald Treump’s anti-DEI campaign? Note: Published in collabortion with Lilac Software. If you are in need of Medicare Advantage (MA) Stars technology and expertise, visit https://lilacsoftware.com . The Health Equity Index (HEI) is officially here. Why? Well, it replaces the Reward Factor in the Medicare Advantage (MA) Star bonus prorgam for Star Year (SY) 2027, but we are smack in the middle of the measurement years that help MA plans to qualify for the new reward. Why is that? Because as opposed to measure performance, the HEI is a blend of two years of data and lags the usual measurement period a bit more. In the case of SY 2027, the HEI measurement period is a blend of measurement years (MY) 2024 and 2025. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services

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March 12, 2025

Government Shutdown Could Occur Senate Democrats came out today and said they do not plan to vote for the House GOP-passed continuing resolution (CR) to fund the rest of this federal fiscal year (through September), instead demanding a 30-day CR to allow for additional negotiations. But there is some buzz that many Democratic senators could change their minds if the Senate GOP majority calls for a cloture vote later this week. The GOP is very unlikely to opt for a 30-day option. One GOP senator, Rand Paul of Kentucky, is against any CR. That means eight Democrats would be needed to invoke cloture to end debate and pass the bill. Several senators have commented they are worried about the political fallout if they vote no. Others feel a government shutdown further empowers Elon Musk and his cost-cutting commission and efforts. A CR must be passed by Friday or there would

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March 11, 2025

House Passes the FFY 2025 CR The House passed the FFY 2025 continuing resolution (CR) today by a vote of 217 to 213. One Republican voted no and one Democrat voted yes. The bill’s passage came together when House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA, and Senate Majority Leader Jon Thune, R-SD, committed that a Medicare physician rate fix would be in the budget reconciliation bill slated for May. The commitment was made to Rep. Greg Murphy, M.D., R-N.C., co-chair of the House Doctors Caucus. He and others threatened to vote no, which might have sunk the bill. Murphy says how far-reaching the fix is – overturning this year’s reduction, adding to it for this year, or a permanent fix – is unspecified at this time. The bill next goes to the Senate. Democrats want to vote en masse against the bill, which would deprive the CR of 60 votes and sink

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