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Government Funding Bill Still Not Passed; Due Up Tuesday in House With Democrats off the Senate funding package to end a partial government shutdown, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA, is still expressing optimism about the House approving a funding package Tuesday. The Rules Committee is now meeting to pass a rule, which then clears the way to have a party-line vote on the Senate package. But with the ability to lose but one vote given a slim majority, Johnson’s optimism may be a bit too, well, optimistic. However, Johnson says he is not asking President Donald Trump to call those Republican holdouts to get the deal over the finish line. This package and an earlier one funds all but the Homeland Security department through September 30. That is funded for two weeks, giving time for Democrats and Republicans to discuss concerns over ICE and Homeland Security conduct. Additional article: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5719277-johnson-trump-gop-holdouts-funding/?tbref=hp #governmentshutdown

Partial Government Shutdown Will Occur Despite Deal But Could Have Limited Impact — Hopefully! The Senate passed a compromise provision to fund the government for all agencies yet to be funded and two weeks for the Department of Homeland Security. That will give time for parties to negotiate over some constraints on immigration officers. The Senate passed legislation Friday on a strong bipartisan vote. The government technically shuts down at midnight tonight, but the House will be back on Monday to vote on the amended package. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA, wants to suspend the rules to take up the bill to get funding moving quickly Monday. That requires a two-thirds vote, requiring about 70 Democrats to sign on in support. In part, Johnson wants to do this because he could have defectors among conservatives and he is challenging Democrats politically to oppose the measure. If he cannot suspned the

Exchange Enrollment Down About 23M have enrolled in Exchange coverage as open enrollment has all but closed out. That’s down about 5% from 2025 but more than the 21.3M in 2024. Interestingly, the reduction is not what many thought it would be after the expiration of the enhanced premium subsidies. About 3.4 million are new enrollees, while 19.6 million are returning. About 15.8 million people enrolled on the federal Healthcare.gov platform, while 7.2 million enrolled on the state-based Exchanges. Some states that stepped in with subsidies of their own saw strong growth, as did others who did not – such as Texas. Nine states had enrollment growth, while 41 saw declines. For the 30 HealthCare.gov states, the data is through Jan. 15. For the 20 state-based exchanges plus D.C., the data is through Jan. 10. There are a few states that extended open enrollment and thus the enrollment numbers could

Elevance Reports Caution, But Better News Than United Elevance Health reported 2025 financial news today and its status is better than imploding UnitedHealth Group. That led to a recovery to some degree in its stock price today. Elevance beat The Street on profit in Q4 2025 but missed on revenue. The company reported $547 million in profit for Q4, up from $418 million in Q4 2024. However, its $49.3 billion in Q4 revenue fell short. It did have almost 10% growth year over year. For the full year, Elevance Health brought in $197.6 billion in revenue, up 12.8% from 2024’s $175.2 billion. Profits were down by 5.3% compared to 2024, decreasing from $6 billion to $5.7 billion. Elevance did report that it will see declining revenue in 2026, though. And profit could be constrained as well. This is tied to shedding of membership to right the financial ship as well as governmental

CMS Defends Flat Rates But Contraction Coming; UnitedHealth Crashes The Trump administration’s top Medicare official is defending the meager proposed Medicare Advantage (MA) increase for 2027, saying the administration is a big supporter of MA. Large plans stocks dropped dramatically today after the after-hours’ announcement yesterday. Analysts, trade groups, and plans are saying that yet another major contraction could occur in 2027. Benefits, products, and geographies began contracting in 2024, with major changes in 2025 and 2026. While the economic growth rate was generous, the administration proposed two risk adjustment changes that will take nearly all of the 5% trend away. Some expect a contraction of enrollment from the 2026 enrollment season when statistics come out soon. I have doubted this, but it very well could happen. Trump officials justify the risk adjustment changes and flat hike as an effort to combat overpayments in the program. In other news, UnitedHealth

MA Hit Hard By Proposed 2027 Rate Hike The Trump administration threw Medicare Advantage (MA) for a loop tonight as it issued the 2027 Advance Notice of rates and set a meager projected hike. MA plans just weathered a three-year phase-in (2024 to 2026) of the new v28 model. By my calculation, that took about 7% out of rates. With skyrocketing utilization, plans had hoped for a 2027 hike that exceeded the rough 5% hike in 2026. But Trump’s Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has now proposed two new risk adjustment reforms that take the almost 5% economic growth inflationary hike down dramatically – almost to 0. This will send stocks of major insurers dropping tomorrow for sure. The draft calls for a 0.09% payment increase. That is an increase of roughly $700 million in MA payments for 2027 compared with $25 billion in 2026! When considering estimated

CareFirst Sues on Star Ratings The now annual tradition of a Medicare Advantage (MA) plan suing over Star ratings continues. CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield is suing the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) over its 2026 Star Ratings, alleging improper calculations cost the insurer an estimated $32 million in quality bonus payments. The plan says CMS departed from its own guidance when it used corrected patient safety data released after the close of the plan preview period to calculate Star Ratings. CareFirst says it received a 3.5-star rating instead of 4 Stars for a contract with about 30,000 enrollees. CareFirst says its Drug Plan Quality Improvement Measure for the contract was impacted by CMS contractor Acumen updating data after the close of the Plan Preview period. CMS has a hard rule that issues must be raised by plans before or during Plan Preview 1 and CareFirst says that CMS should