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October 22, 2024

Cigna-Humana Possible Merger Explained With news that the Cigna-Humana merger could be back on, financial analysts are reviewing what it could mean for healthcare. The merger looks to be very complimentary, with very little overlap. A combined company would have a $121 billion market capitalization, still tiny compared with UnitedHealth Group’s $528 billion. On the insurance side, Cigna is a major commercial provider with 16.1 million members. Humana had fewer than 600,000 commercial customers and is closing this line down. Humana is the second-largest Medicare insurer with 8.8 million members (Medicare Advantage and standalone Part D PDP). It has about 1.2 million Medicaid lives. Cigna is selling its Medicare line to Health Care Service Corporation (HCSC, a big Midwest and South Blue). This began last year when the first talks were ongoing and continued after they broke down. Cigna CEO David Cordani felt too much would have to be invested

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October 21, 2024

Humana Sues CMS Over Star Scores In the broadest lawsuit yet over Star scores, Humana has sued the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) over its 2025 Star ratings. Lawsuits in 2024 from Scan and Elevance Health and in 2025 from United and Humana are relatively tame, arguing specific points of regulation or on a specific measure or measures. United has used the phrase “arbitrary and capricious” in detailing its lawsuit, but the Humana suit argues that in spades compared with United. Humana argues that the entire Star program is administered in an arbitrary and capricious manner in violation of the administrative procedures act. The argument has much greater significance now due to the Supreme Court striking down the so-called Chevron deference precedent, which gave agencies fairly wide-ranging authority to set regulations and interpret ambiguities. Of note, the suit has been filed in the Northern District of Texas before

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October 18, 2024

CVS Ousts CEO Due To Financial Woes CVS Health ousted CEO Karen Lynch and replaced her with another insider, PBM President David Joyner. CVS also announced that investors can no longer rely on previous guidance from the company in terms of financial performance in 2024. CVS’ financial woes stem from its Aetna insurance business. It says its Aetna medical loss ratio (MLR) could hit 95.2% in Q3. This is stunnng given it has a substantial commercial line of business. CVS increased Medicare Advantage (MA) benefits phenomenally over the past few years and enrollment grew tremendously in 2024. This led to financial instability due to a number of inside and outside forces. I followed Lynch and met her a few times as Aetna’s leader. I found her an innovative and strong executive. She was dealt a bad hand since becoming CEO in February 2021. She had to weather the COVID pandemic,

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October 17, 2024

Democratic Report Argues Medicare Advantage Plans Use AI To Reduce Post Acute Care An incredibly biased report engineered by Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-CT, finds that the country’s three largest Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers – United Healthcare, Humana, and Aetna — obstruct seniors’ ability to receive post-acute care. It says the companies use technology (perhaps AI algorithms) to reject prior authorization claims. The report finds that the three insurers denied claims for post-acute care at “far higher” rates than for other types of care. Humana’s denials in post-acute care were 16 times higher than its overall denial rates. UnitedHealthcare and CVS denials were three times higher. I agree with the insurers that the report is sensationalistic. The report argues that at least two companies used AI and technology in denials. I do think a qualified professional should make the final clinical decision to deny a service. But what is lost on

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October 16, 2024

Biden Leaving His Mark On Medicare Advantage A very good article from Bridget Early in Modern Healthcare on the history of Medicare Advantage (MA) and how the Biden administration is leaving its mark on the program. I do take issue with the continual citing of what I think is a terribly biased overpayment figure (in this article $83 billion and I have seen even more ridiculous figures). But she has an extremely balanced approach and quotes both sides of the debate (some of the most qualified you can find) and reasonably speaks to the potential damage in the form of benefit reductions and geographic contraction that is occurring due to certain policies. It gives you a good feel for MA’s history and what is going on today. The article does a good job at inventorying changes, including health equity, risk adjustment changes, supplemental benefit changes, marketing reform, and prior authorization

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October 15, 2024

Mixed Signals On Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment The Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollment season officially kicked off today. While the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) finds that MA plans are largely stable, it does note that there are some reductions impacting consumers. Some beneficaries may be moved automatically to other plans by their current insurers. Others will have to make an affirmative choice. KFF promises to have a full review but appears to be putting the same spin on things as the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Others are saying that as many as 2 million will be displaced compared with the usual 100,000 each year. We covered some of the displacement yesterday for both MA and standalone Part D (PDP) plans. CNN correctly notes the displacement, citing an Oliver Wyman analysis that comes close to the 2 million number above. Oliver Wyman says more than 1.8 million MA members,

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October 14, 2024

Despite Star Problems, United And Humana Expected To Stay On Top Analysts say that United Healthcare and Humana will likely maintain their top positions in Medicare Advantage (MA), do well on enrollment, and weather current fiscal storms despite lower Star ratings, slimmer benefits, and financial headwinds. At the same time, analysts say lower Star scores are a real risk for the industry. Other large plans will do well as well. CVS Aetna has told investors it expects to shed about 10% of lives. Humana told investors it would lose about 5%. Large plans did very poorly in Star in 2025, with limited exceptions. Becker’s also ranks some of the largest MA plans by Star score for 2025. Jenn Kerfoot had a great LinkedIn post discussing the plight of 223,952 MA members facing plan terminations or service area reductions in areas with the highest levels of socioeconomic need. They will need

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October 11, 2024

Winners And Losers From 2025 Medicare Advantage Star Year Announcement I reported yesterday that there was overall bad news for the Medicare Advantage (MA) industry when 2025 Star Years came out. The percentage of contracts obtaining a 4 Star or greater rating dropped to about 40%. Just 62% of all Medicare Advantage Part D (MA-PD) enrollees will be in a 4 Star or greater contract. These are big drops from even a sluggish 2024 Star year. There is always good news and bad news. Insurtechs Alignment Healthcare and Clover Health are celebrating their high-performing ratings. The big plans have a mix of stories: Humana, Elevance Health, and United Healthcare saw declines. Aetna and Cigna held steady. Centene’s performance was still sub par. Kaiser Permanente now has all of its members to 4 Star or greater. There were just seven 5-Star MA-PD contracts. There were 24 contracts that scored below 3

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October 10, 2024

Bad News On Medicare Advantage Star Ratings The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announced 2025 Star ratings and the news was not good. The percentage of contracts obtaining a 4 Star or greater rating dropped to about 40%. Just 62% of all Medicare Advantage Part D (MA-PD) enrollees will be in a 4 Star or greater plan. These are big drops from even a sluggish 2024 Star year. Humana saw the biggest drops among large national plans, with United and Elevance having some reductions and Centene continuing to score low. Aetna was roughly flat in terms of achievement. The poor Big Plan results drove the estimated enrollment in high-performing plans down. Big Plans have about three-quarters of the MA market. Humana and United are challenging their ratings. United has filed a lawsuit against CMS. My new company, Lilac Software, will have a blog and an infographic on all

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October 9, 2024

Despite Some Cutbacks, MA Plans Are Going Big For Special Needs Plans Given their potential for greater margin, Medicare Advantage (MA) plans appear to be making heavy investments in Special Needs Plans (SNPs) in 2025, even as they contract other products in certain areas. Done right, SNPs can generate 6.4% margins, compared with 2.8% for MA generally. This comes from 2021 data. As well, the plans are reacting to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) making the integration of Medicare and Medicaid funding streams a huge priority. The growth continues a trend. SNP enrollment is about 6.6 million people this year, up 255% from 10 years ago, 125% from five years ago and 16% from 2023. SNP enrollment is projected to hit 7.2 million in 2025. UnitedHealth Group, Humana, Elevance Health, CVS Health, Centene and Molina are all investing heavily. Some plans are contracting base benefits even in

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