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What Will Trump’s Second First 100 Days Look Like?

What will the early months of a new Trump term mean for healthcare? President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to take office on January 20 after coming back from the political dead. Trump will become just the second president to serve non-consecutive terms. For the politically curious, the first was Grover Cleveland in 1885 and then again in 1893. Cleveland beat Republican James Blaine in 1884, winning both the electoral and popular votes. He lost to Republican Benjamin Harrison in 1888. Harrison won the electoral vote, but Cleveland won the popular vote. Cleveland came back to beat Harrison in 1892, getting both the electoral and popular vote. A now more government-savvy Trump has come out fast to put together his agenda and personnel for his second term, a major difference than what occurred in 2017 when Trump looked flat-footed during the transition. Trump already has almost all of his nominees picked

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Channeling Nostradamus: The Healthcare Labyrinth’s 2025 Predictions

Even a master seer would have problems predicting what will occur in healthcare in 2025 In my last blog, I gave you my healthcare year-in-review for 2024. After that, as I always do each year, I play Nostradamus to prognosticate about what will happen in the next twelve months in the world of healthcare. Despite my Irish last name, I do have French blood (well, 50% French Canadien, so I count it). But I don’t claim to be an oracle or seer like our 16th century physician, apothecary, and astrologer friend. I do take a page from Nostradamus, though, in that my healthcare predictions for 2025 (not really prophecies) will be sometimes deliberately vague (they include a lot of mays, coulds, shoulds, perhaps, likelys and possibles) so as to amass a reasonable record for those tracking and putting together my forecasting report card for the history books. It also tends to make my

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The Healthcare Labyrinth 2024 Year In Review Blog

A busy year in healthcare with insurer woes and a presidential election that brought changing political winds As is my tradition at year’s end, I reflect back on all that occurred in healthcare in the year. It was a big year in healthcare and the election portends another massive one next year. I will have my 2025 predictions blog on Thursday. So, here are the major healthcare happenings from 2024. You can go to various blogs at the blog tab to learn more. In a few instances, I call out good blogs to go back to as well. NHED shows robust healthcare growth National healthcare expenditure data (NHED) was published for 2023. Costs rose 7.6% from 2022 to 2023 and reached almost $4.9 trillion. This made spending on healthcare expeditures hit 17.6% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Healthcare expenditure will consume almost one-fifth of the economy by 2032. Insurer

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September 19, 2024

Paragon Institute Sees Fraud In Enhanced Premium Subsidies As Democrats are calling for the extension or permanent adoption of enhanced premium subsidies in the Exchange, the conservative Paragon Institute is arguing that the enhanced premium subsidies are creating fraud as enrollees and/or brokers misrepresent income to get better subsidies. They say this is occurring very much in the 100% to 150% of the federal poverty level (FPL) income group, where free premiums are offered under the enhancement. Paragon says the original subsidies should be put back in place to lessen fraud. In addition, Paragon says small business coverage has eroded since the enhanced subsidies have been in effect. There is fraud going on in the program, with brokers illegally signing people up or changing their plans. But Paragon is now raising a different issue of fraud – the true misrepresentation of income. Paragon also raised a possible compromise. While it

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September 18, 2024

Near Final Medicaid Redetermination Data In The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) has done a great public service tracking and explaining the fallout over the reintroduction of Medicaid redeterminations. While some states will carry out remaining redeterminations into 2025, we are nearing the end of the journey. About 25 million people were disenrolled for some period of time since redeterminations began again in April 2023. There is some good news and bad news to the near-end of this redetermination story. The pause in redeterminations during the pandemic allowed rolls to grow in Medicaid and children’s health insurance to 94 million. Even with losses, almost 10 million more people are covered now than before the pandemic. At the same time, 13 million have lost Medicaid coverage since the peak. Many but not all have gained coverage in other ways. Kaiser Family Foundation press release: https://www.kff.org/medicaid/press-release/as-medicaid-unwinding-concludes-in-most-states-kff-finds-25-million-lost-medicaid-coverage-but-enrollment-is-10-million-higher-than-pre-pandemic-levels/ #medicareadvantage #walmart #humana #primarycare https://www.beckerspayer.com/leadership/why-centerwell-is-moving-into-walmart.html?utm_medium=email&utm_content=newsletter HRSA Notifies

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September 17, 2024

Fireworks At Senate Finance Hearing On Healthcare Fireworks erupted at the Senate Finance hearing on various healthcare issues. Supporters of the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) Medicare drug price negotiations say it is a good first step and will reduce drug costs in the country. Opponents argue it will impact innovation and Part D changes will increase premiums. Others attacked GOP VP candidate J.D. Vance’s explanation of what a Trump Obamacare repeal may look like – principally setting up risk pools for those who are sick. On enhanced premiums, many support their extension, but the GOP discussed the huge price tag. Both parties seemed to favor pharmacy benefit manager reform. #healthcare #election2024 #healthcarereform https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payers/lawmakers-policy-experts-spar-over-inflation-reduction-act Trump and GOP At Odds Over Medicare Drug Price Negotiations Interesting article from Axios on the divide between Donald Trump and GOP members of Congress on the Medicare drug price negotiations law. The lawmakers are doing the

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September 16, 2024

JD Vance Seemingly Flips on Obamacare And Says Trump Has A Repeal Plan As a senatorial candidate and even as a senator, GOP VP nominee JD Vance poo-pooed the idea of repealing the popular Affordable Care Act (ACA). He argued the program was helping many working Americans. It was a compassionate argument that many viewed as novel in the GOP. But on a Sunday news show, Vance said that Trump has a repeal plan and its cornerstone appears to be the old conservative policy of removing sicker populations from most insurance and putting them in high-risk pools. Despite Vance saying people would be protected, it certainly raises the issue of what happens to people with pre-existing conditions – both from a coverage and affordability standpoint. Such high-risk pools rarely worked as they did not protect patients with pre-existing conditions, were not funded correctly, and had exorbitant premiums. The GOP argues

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September 13, 2024

Medicare Drugs Prices Analyzed A good article in Health Affairs Forefront analyzes the final prices of the ten drugs subject to Medicare drug price negotiations for 2026. The analysis shows that savings are indeed achieved on a net basis when taking into account Part D rebates. However, the data also show that the new prices are far above net prices in other developed countries. As I have argued, Medicare drug price negotiations amount to a cautious start. As the authors also note, the best prices CMS can negotiate are for those drugs that have close therapeutic alternatives or substitutes. The authors also suggest that an ancillary benefit of the negotiation law is the publication of net prices.  This could now drive changes in other lines of business. (Article may require a subscription.) #drugpricing #ira #branddrugmakers https://www.healthaffairs.org/content/forefront/medicare-negotiation-tells-us-drug-pricing-u-s Tracking Poll Shows Widespread Support For Drug Price Negotiations A new Kaiser Family Foundation

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September 12, 2024

Key Republican Dismisses Idea ACA Could Be Repealed At the recent presidential debate, Donald Trump declared that he was still open to repealing the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Admittedly, he is much more measured in his views on the ACA now. He tries to stress that the ACA would only be repealed if a plan were developed to make coverage better. He as of yet has not unveiled a plan. But prominent congressional Republicans again are throwing cold water on the prospect of any repeal.  Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-LA and currently ranking member on the Senate HELP Committee, dismissed the idea that the ACA would be repealed by Congress. And Republicans are likely to take control of the Senate. Cassidy would lead the HELP committee. Along with the Finance Committee, HELP is a committee of cognizance over healthcare matters. Cassidy stressed that comprehensive healthcare reform would have to be bipartisan.

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September 11, 2024

Too Many Medicare Pilots A great article in the Health Affairs Forefront Blog discussing the proliferation of traditional Medicare pilots testing alternative payment schemes. The authors find that there are more than 30 different payment program schemes, including accountable care organizations (ACOs). They also note that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) finds that, of the $7.9 billion spent to operate pilot health care payment models between 2011 and 2020, only $2.6 billion in savings were realized. The authors point out the government and system take on huge administrative complexity each time a new pilot is added. They recommend simplifying Part B payment model options and streamlining into a limited set of whole-person, population-based models. Well said. I have argued the same on these pages. (Article may require a subscription.) #acos #medicare #providers #cms https://www.healthaffairs.org/content/forefront/medicare-part-b-clinician-payment-programs-and-growing-costs-administrative-complexity KFF Says Medicare Advantage Star Bonus Payments Declined in 2024 A new report from Kaiser Family

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