Given the major MA retrenchment in 2025, many are asking what will happen to offerings, geographies, and growth in 2026. I tell you.
About The Podcast:
Millions of Americans feel confused and frustrated in their search for quality healthcare coverage.
Between out-of-control costs, countless inefficiencies, a lack of affordable universal access, and little focus on wellness and prevention, the system is clearly in dire need of change.
Hosted by healthcare policy and technology expert Marc S. Ryan, the Healthcare Labyrinth Podcast offers accessible, incisive deep dives on the most pressing issues and events in American healthcare.
Marc seeks to help Americans become wiser consumers and navigate the healthcare maze with more confidence and certainty through The Healthcare Labyrinth website and his book of the same name.
Marc is an unconventional Republican who believes that affordable universal access is a wise and prudent investment. He recommends common-sense solutions to reform American healthcare.
Tune in every week as Marc examines the latest developments in the space, offering analysis, insights, and predictions on the changing state of healthcare in America.
About The Episode:
On this episode, Marc discusses what will happen to offerings, geographies, and growth in Medicare Advantage in 2026.
Key Takeaways:
Since January 2020, MA enrollment has grown from 23.93 million to 35.44 in July 2025, a growth of 11.51 million.
From January 2020 to January 2024, average growth was 10%, ranging from 6% to 11%.
Growth from January 2024 to February 2025 did come down considerably to 4.4%.
Since February, MA continues to grow at a healthy pace overall. Between February and July, almost 500,000 lives were added to the MA rolls.
We are likely in store for a rate of growth from 2025 to 2026 that is similar to 2024 to 2025.
It is clear that the major retrenchment by MA plans in 2025 impacted overall growth. But a great value proposition compared with the traditional program sustains growth.
2025 brought a reduction in some added benefits, a major contraction of the Preferred Provider Organization (PPO) product, and geographic contraction.
While many plans pulled back, national MA plans struggled the most in terms of benefit cuts, contraction, and growth.
While Individual MA plan offerings declined by 6.54% in 2025, SNP offerings increased 8.5% in 2025. And SNPs have grown considerably since January 2024.
In the end, robust competition remained, $0 premiums prevailed, and most enrollees could find very favorable plans.
Some analysts are speculating that contraction of benefits, products, and geographies could be robust again this year. But will it be as big as 2025?
I do not expect the enrollee impacts to reach what we saw in 2025. But based on recent announcements from United and Aetna, we can say the contraction in benefits, products, and footprint could again be sizeable in 2026.
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Resources:
The Healthcare Labyrinth: A Guide to Navigating Health Plans and Fixing American Health Insurance
